NFL 2014 Season Super Bowl Picks

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Patriots 28 @ Seahawks 24
Final
Sun, 2/1/15 5:30pm
7 Picks - 64% 4 Picks - 36%
Patriots
Patriots
Seahawks
Seahawks
Seahawks
Seahawks
Patriots
Patriots
Week Record1 - 0
1.000
First Place
0 - 1
0.000
Worst Place
0 - 1
0.000
Worst Place
1 - 0
1.000
First Place
Season Record167 - 99
0.628
158 - 108
0.594
168 - 98
0.632
159 - 107
0.598
Scotttime Record1501 - 898
0.626
1444 - 955
0.602
1497 - 902
0.624
1509 - 890
0.629
No-Pack-Vike Record2517 - 1476
0.630
2447 - 1546
0.613
2530 - 1463
0.634
2492 - 1501
0.624
Lifetime Record2178 - 1288
0.628
2055 - 1411
0.593
2167 - 1299
0.625
2168 - 1298
0.625
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Seahawks

Week:0 - 1
0.000
Season:164 - 100
0.621
Lifetime:1519 - 872
0.635
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Patriots

Week:1 - 0
1.000
Season:88 - 42
0.677
Lifetime:752 - 442
0.630
hambone.jpg
Patriots

Week:1 - 0
1.000
Season:182 - 84
0.684
Lifetime:861 - 463
0.650
IMG003.jpg
Seahawks

Week:0 - 1
0.000
Season:174 - 92
0.654
Lifetime:765 - 421
0.645
2015-08-23 17.06.53.jpg
Patriots

Week:1 - 0
1.000
Season:171 - 94
0.645
Lifetime:284 - 162
0.637
IMG_20131124_132302_774.jpg
Patriots

Week:1 - 0
1.000
Season:166 - 98
0.629
Lifetime:200 - 107
0.651
1441860133743826163568.jpg
Patriots

Week:1 - 0
1.000
Season:176 - 89
0.664
Lifetime:176 - 89
0.664
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Patriots 28 @ Seahawks 24

sarah.jpg
Sarah
I don't care.
jon.jpg
Jon
I can't remember the last Super Bowl where I was so undecided about who I would cheer for. I don't hate either team. I have a slight appreciation for both of them. Sometimes I'll just pull for whichever team I pick on here, but I can't seem to decide on that either.
When I think about possible deciding factors, I look at something like Richard Sherman and Earl Thomas being injured. Sure, it didn't seem to hamper them too much a couple weeks ago, but don't you think Belichick is looking to exploit such circumstances? Then again, maybe that backfires. Then I think about this whole deflated ball thing. Maybe you think it's silly, but apparently New England has been a bit of an outlier in how little they fumble the last few years, and they play better than average in poor conditions. So maybe they've been exploiting their own little hidden advantage for a while now. Something tells me these balls will be inspected once or twice. Or fifteen times. If Tom Brady's suddenly forced to throw footballs that feel to him like beachballs, what kind of Patriots offense are we going to get? Especially against that defense?
What could win it for the Patriots? Brady and Gronk being Brady and Gronk and/or the New England defense making Russell Wilson look like ordinary Russell Wilson.
What could win it for the Seahawks? The fact that Brady will probably be throwing all game, start to finish, with few runs mixed in, and will almost certainly make a few poor throws that can change the whole game. Also, if Marshawn Lynch does Marshawn Lynch things and Russell Wilson completes a handful of timely big passes and converts some first downs with his feet.
My best guess? The Seattle defense gives Brady enough trouble to open the door and the Seahawks run, run, run their way to a victory. But as I type this, I immediately want to change it. And then I'd probably want to change it again.
Finally, just for fun, "Marshawn Lynch, you just won the Super Bowl for the second year in a row, what are you going to do?"
jeremy.jpgJeremy - 8953 Posts
01/20/2015 @ 02:19:03 PM
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This here game is up.
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scott.jpgScott - Get Up! Get outta here! Gone!
01/20/2015 @ 03:29:38 PM
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Due to the severe statistical improbability on which one of the teams got into the game, I suspect that they may decide to forgoe the game this year. Because science.
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fry6beeu9.jpgJeremy - 8953 Posts
01/20/2015 @ 05:17:59 PM
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People are being way too hard on Bostick. I mean, ok, he didn't execute well, but it was on a play where anyone could come crashing into him at any nanosecond. Sure, it wasn't his ball to catch, but I think the notion that he shouldn't have tried because he "wasn't supposed to" is a little silly.

The players' roles in that situation are almost assuredly ideal, at best. Is it that hard to envision a scenario where the kicking team recovers because a guy who was only supposed to block let the ball go 3 inches over his shoulder just because "that wasn't my job"? The notion that there's not, on some level, an implicit "of course you should absolutely watch the ball, and furthermore if it's right to you catch it" is silly, because you'd have your offensive line out there otherwise. How is he supposed to know that his catch doesn't save the game? That no Seattle player is already back there? That the ball isn't going to hit the ground and than anything can happen? We're positive that Jordy Nelson would have caught it with a guy up in his grill? (Of course, it's possible that particular guy was Bostick's to block, but I don't know that to be the case.) The play works about 21% of the time, really an almost unbelievably high figure, and they aren't all assignment screw ups. If that figure doesn't scream "weird shit happens in that fracas, and if you can catch it in the air, catch the damn thing," I don't know what does.

About 50 things had to happen to even put him in that position. If blame has to be assigned, #FireMcCarthy, but blame doesn't need to be assigned. Take it from a Vikings fan, sometimes shit happens.
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Jeremy messed with this 2 times, last at 01/20/2015 5:21:52 pm
scott.jpgScott - You're going to have to call your hardware guy. It's not a software issue.
01/23/2015 @ 08:39:39 AM
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My general feeling is that Packer fans have in general moved on from blaming Bostick. It might be anecdotal, but that's the sense I'm getting. It helped that he manned up pretty much immediately and repeatedly about what his mistake was, and didn't try to shift the blame for that particular play away from himself. According to Bostick himself, he knew what he was supposed to do and admitted that he didn't do it (to address one of Jeremy's questions, from what I've read that guy was bostick's guy to block). Not blaming a guy for the entire failure of the most epic collapse in NFL history isn't the same as admitting that a guy screwed up and cost his team a big play. That being said, pinning it on that one play is wrong. The play that gets me all the more fired up is Burnett's interception and the subsequent lay down, when a look at the All-22 angle at the time of his laydown suggested that a touchdown was a strong possibility if Peppers doesn't give him the "this game is over, lay down" signal and Burnett keeps running. Or if nothing else, he at the very least gets it to maybe the Seahawks 30 yard line or so, setting up at the very worst a field goal attempt which could have put them up by 15 instead of 12.

Regarding McCarthy, I have mixed feelings about how people feel about him. One thing that I think cannot be overlooked is that he has now been to 3 NFC championship games with 2 different QBs, and has a Super Bowl ring. It seems to be no secret that he is shaky at times as an in-game manager. From my amateur perspective, he at times seems to be too timid and can demonstrate some questionable clock management skills at the ends of halfs. While I think he is a very creative offensive mind, he sometimes plays too safe when the risk of failure in a certain situation isn't as costly as the benfit of success. He generally seems to be a creative play caller. That being said, he also appears to be a tremendous leader of men. His teams are generally near the top of the league in terms of fewest penalties. His teams have now won 4 straight division titles, and he has made the playoffs in 7 of his 9 seasons as the head coach. Personally, I don't know what you solve by firing McCarthy. There may be things that he can fix about how he manages a game (like, maybe, always go for it on 4 and goal at the 1 yard line when you know points are at a premium, or whenever you are inside the 30 yard line). Taking the Seahawks game as an example, the Packers were inside the Seahawks 30 yard line about 50 times in the first 1.5 quarters, twice they had 4 and goal at the one. and they only came away with 16 points in the first half. Now the Seahawks defense is as good as any in NFL history (so they say), but that doesn't mean you can't score more points with that many opportunities. The Packers also struggled on goal to go inside the 5 against the Cowboys, at one point running something like 7 plays before getting a touchdown. So to sum up, I agree with some of the criticisms of McCarthy, but I don't know that those problems get solved by getting rid of him.
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jeremy.jpgJeremy - Always thinking of, but never about, the children.
01/23/2015 @ 03:01:49 PM
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Scott Wrote - Today @ 08:39:39 AM
One thing that I think cannot be overlooked is that he has now been to 3 NFC championship games with 2 different QBs, and has a Super Bowl ring.


Those 2 qbs are a first ballot HOFer and one that's even better. I'm pretty sure anyone would succeed more often than not. We're taking about a guy that threw a challenge flag on a play that was going to be reviewed anyway despite the fact that perhaps the biggest hot topic in all of sports at the moment was that doing that was an (inexplicably allowed anyway) penalty that cancels the challenge.

Forget not going for points when he could have. When the Packers needed to hang on to the ball the most he ran safe runs simply because he said he wanted to hit 20 rushes in the second half. You see, teams that run the ball a lot in the second half win more often than not. This is, of course, a "most shark attacks occur within 30 feet of shore" stat. It's true, but duh, they're running because they're winning, not because that's the ticket to a win. Those other teams don't have Aaron Rodgers, and a lot of those stats probably come from games with a larger lead, or over time. It's not an "oh, crap, we're behind on that stat, run, run, run, run, run, run, whew, that was close." thing.

The reason the fake FG worked was because the Seahawks noticed a flaw in the Packers FG rush.

He's always struck me as a guy the Packers are winning in spite of, not because of.

As for Bostick, I guess the way I look at it, it's not entirely fair to look at this one play in hindsight and say "if he does his job the Packers win", even though that seems to be a safe statement. Onside kicks succeed way too often to be a matter of some guy not running the play. The play is nice, and ideally plays would go as they were drawn up, but the play themselves fail all the time. Surely you can't go TOO wrong with a "get it if it's to you" rider attached, because we could probably find 20 examples of a guy on the receiving team letting a ball by because that was the play, only to have their team never see it again because the other team's play was to take out the Jordy Nelson and have everyone else go for the ball.
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Jeremy perfected this 2 times, last at 01/23/2015 3:06:54 pm
scott.jpgScott - No, I did not change your screen saver settings
01/24/2015 @ 02:13:53 PM
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Jeremy Wrote - Yesterday @ 03:01:49 PM
Scott Wrote - Yesterday @ 08:39:39 AM
One thing that I think cannot be overlooked is that he has now been to 3 NFC championship games with 2 different QBs, and has a Super Bowl ring.


Those 2 qbs are a first ballot HOFer and one that's even better. I'm pretty sure anyone would succeed more often than not. We're taking about a guy that threw a challenge flag on a play that was going to be reviewed anyway despite the fact that perhaps the biggest hot topic in all of sports at the moment was that doing that was an (inexplicably allowed anyway) penalty that cancels the challenge.



Look at the season prior to McCarthy being hired. Favre had 20 td passes and 29 interceptions. I'm not suggesting that McCarthy is a miracle worker, but it could be argued that he somewhat revitalized Favre's career, or at least had a hand in it. Again, we also don't know that Rodgers was destined to be a Hall of Fame QB. For all we know, having a guy like McCarthy at the helm drawing up an offense for this often overlooked quarterback prospect played as much a part of turning him into a soon to be 2 time MVP as anything. Like I said, the performances can't be overlooked. I didn't say McCarthy is 100% responsible. The 2007 nfc championship game was 2 years removed from a 4-12 season and an aging QB who looked all but washed up. The 2010 season was a season filled with more IR placements (i know, a completely hogwash stat) than any Super Bowl winning team in history. All I'm saying is that McCarthy deserves some credit for the success of the Packers franchise over the past 9 seasons.

Besides all that, I admitted that it seems common knowledge that he isn't the greatest in game decision maker in all of sports. But it's pretty harsh to say they are somehow winning in spite of him. You never know how bad you might have it taking out a guy who has been at the wheel for most of that success. On the other hand, I suppose you never know how good you could have it if a change was made, but change for sake of change is a risky endeavor.
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Scott screwed with this at 01/24/2015 2:18:12 pm
scott.jpgScott - 6225 Posts
01/24/2015 @ 02:22:55 PM
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Jeremy Wrote - Yesterday @ 03:01:49 PM

As for Bostick, I guess the way I look at it, it's not entirely fair to look at this one play in hindsight and say "if he does his job the Packers win", even though that seems to be a safe statement. Onside kicks succeed way too often to be a matter of some guy not running the play. The play is nice, and ideally plays would go as they were drawn up, but the play themselves fail all the time. Surely you can't go TOO wrong with a "get it if it's to you" rider attached, because we could probably find 20 examples of a guy on the receiving team letting a ball by because that was the play, only to have their team never see it again because the other team's play was to take out the Jordy Nelson and have everyone else go for the ball.


It's one thing to have a play go sour because the other team made a totally awesome play. It's another thing to see a play go sour because of a known and admitted to blown assignment. In this case, the failure was due to the latter, almost certainly. Again, I'm not saying that the blame should be entirely on Bosticks' shoulders for the entire game, but there is nothing controversial about putting the breakdown of that play on him.
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fry6beeu9.jpgJeremy - As Seen On The Internet
01/24/2015 @ 04:09:42 PM
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Thing is in sports it's hardly a rare exception where a guy not following the play is what makes the play. Onside kicks in particular are barely organized chaos. I don't think it's incongruous to say that had he done his job the Packers almost certainly get the ball back and win, while also saying it's tough to blame him for the attempt, because one requires the benefit of hindsight. (I'm not even talking about blaming the loss on him, I'm more or less questioning if it's fair to blame him for anything in the heat of that moment, other than biffing the catch, or if we're letting hindsight color it too much.)

It's a shame for Bostick that the Packers had the perfect recovery play in for what ended up happening, it's just that, IMHO, a kick recovery play where all but one member of the hands team ignores the ball is bound to backfire often enough to forgive a guy trying to catch a ball kicked more or less right to him high out of the air, and never let strange things happen. He's not a defensive lineman with a hand in a cast. He doesn't know if Jordy will get it, or it if will be as easy a catch for him, etc. (Jordy might have the best hands out there, but an NFL TE catching a floater is probably better odds or as good of odds as Jordy plucking it just before the ground.) That's a plus strategy, I'm sure...he just failed to actually catch it.

Like I said before. ~21% of expected onside kicks don't succeed because guys forget to execute the "block and let this one guy get it" play," and he has little idea what's going on behind him in reality.

It's just too bad for him that in this instance it looks like it would have been perfect.
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Jeremy edited this 4 times, last at 01/24/2015 6:10:03 pm
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