The Lead Is Safe - How to tell when a college basketball game is out of reach

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Added By: Matt

Added on: 03/17/2008 @ 9:55:52 PM

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The Lead Is Safe - How to tell when a college basketball game is out of reach

Bill James, most widely known for his pioneering work in the statistical analysis of baseball, has come up with a method for calculating when a college basketball lead is safe (i.e. not winning is extremely improbable) based on the point differential and the time left in the game.
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	Jeremy - 9475 Posts 03/18/2008 @ 10:05:05 AM
That's super interesting.		Rate this comment Yours: Rated 0 times.

	Jeremy - 9475 Posts 03/18/2008 @ 10:19:17 AM
It would be cool to see this done for the NFL, if for no other reason than "who has the ball" would be a much much larger impact.		Rate this comment Yours: Rated 0 times.

	Alex - 3619 Posts 03/18/2008 @ 01:20:04 PM
I think it would generally be less meaningful for the NFL because an interception in one end zone returned 100 yards for a TD is a 14 point swing in games that often have a combined total score of 30-60 points which indicates less predictability. You'd have to somehow factor in timeouts and the 2 minute warning too. Plus with scoring options of 1, 2, 3, and 6 you'd probably have to end up with some sort of step fuction to accommodate the different deficits. Edit: accommodate is a weird word		Rate this comment Yours: Rated 0 times.
Alex edited this at 03/18/2008 1:21:28 pm

	PackOne - 1528 Posts 03/18/2008 @ 04:06:31 PM
Jeremy Wrote - 03/18/2008 @ 10:05:05 AM That's super interesting.		Rate this comment Yours: Rated 0 times.

	Scott - 6225 Posts 03/19/2008 @ 07:14:00 PM
I think I'll just keep watching until the end. You math nerds can watch it how you want.		Rate this comment Yours: Total: Rated 1 times.

	Carlos44ec - Tag This 03/20/2008 @ 07:55:53 AM
no kidding. Math and sports are interesting, but just like a joke- the more analisis you put it through the less funny/entertaining it becomes.		Rate this comment Yours: Rated 0 times.

	Alex - But let history remember, that as free men, we chose to make it so! 03/20/2008 @ 12:37:44 PM
I think Math becomes more funny/entertaining, not less.		Rate this comment Yours: Rated 0 times.

	Scott - 6225 Posts 03/20/2008 @ 06:03:41 PM
I actually tend to agree with Matt. My comment was mostly just for laughs. Baseball stats are by far the most entertaining thing to "manipulate" in all of sports.		Rate this comment Yours: Rated 0 times.