The Lead Is Safe - How to tell when a college basketball game is out of reachBill James, most widely known for his pioneering work in the statistical analysis of baseball, has come up with a method for calculating when a college basketball lead is safe (i.e. not winning is extremely improbable) based on the point differential and the time left in the game.
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|Jeremy - Super Chocolate Bear|
|That's super interesting.|
|Jeremy - 8874 Posts|
|It would be cool to see this done for the NFL, if for no other reason than "who has the ball" would be a much much larger impact.|
|Alex - 3616 Posts|
I think it would generally be less meaningful for the NFL because an interception in one end zone returned 100 yards for a TD is a 14 point swing in games that often have a combined total score of 30-60 points which indicates less predictability. You'd have to somehow factor in timeouts and the 2 minute warning too. Plus with scoring options of 1, 2, 3, and 6 you'd probably have to end up with some sort of step fuction to accommodate the different deficits.
Edit: accommodate is a weird word
|Alex messed with this at 03/18/2008 1:21:28 pm|
|PackOne - From your first cigarette to your last dyin' day.|
Jeremy Wrote - 03/18/2008 @ 10:05:05 AM
That's super interesting.
|Scott - Ma'am, can you make sure your computer is turned on?|
|I think I'll just keep watching until the end. You math nerds can watch it how you want.|
|Carlos44ec - 2078 Posts|
|no kidding. Math and sports are interesting, but just like a joke- the more analisis you put it through the less funny/entertaining it becomes.|
|Alex - I was too weak to give in Too strong to lose|
|I think Math becomes more funny/entertaining, not less.|
|Scott - 6225 Posts|
|I actually tend to agree with Matt. My comment was mostly just for laughs. Baseball stats are by far the most entertaining thing to "manipulate" in all of sports.|