Baseball Hall of Fame 2018 Edition

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12/31/2017 3:53 am

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It's time for my Fifteenth annual "If I had a Hall of Fame Vote" post.

My previous ballots:
2004 - 2005 - 2006 - 2007 - 2008 - 2009 - 2010 - 2011 - 2012 - 2013 - 2014 - 2015 - 2016 - 2017

A few reminders:
1. Voters can vote for up to ten players.
2. I'm a "Big Hall" guy so I voted for ten.
3. I reserve the right not to have reasonable explanations for any or all of my selections.
4. To be inducted, players need to be named on 75% of the ballots cast.
5. The real results will be announced on January 24th.

Eligible Players:

Holdovers from last year - Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Vladimir Guerrero, Trevor Hoffman, Jeff Kent, Edgar Martinez, Fred McGriff, Mike Mussina, Manny Ramirez, Curt Schilling, Gary Sheffield, Sammy Sosa, Billy Wagner, Larry Walker

First-timers - Chris Carpenter, Johnny Damon, Livan Hernandez, Orlando Hudson, Aubrey Huff, Jason Isringhausen, Andruw Jones, Chipper Jones, Carlos Lee, Brad Lidge, Hideki Matsui, Kevin Millwood, Jamie Moyer, Scott Rolen, Johan Santana, Jim Thome, Omar Vizquel, Kerry Wood, Carlos Zambrano

Go to Baseball Reference for player stats.

My Ballot:

Barry Bonds - Eligible since 2013; 6th time on my ballot ('13-'18)
Roger Clemens - Eligible since 2013; 6th time on my ballot ('13-'18)
Vladimir Guerrero - Eligible since 2017; 2nd time on my ballot ('17,'18)
Chipper Jones - Eligible since 2018; 1st time on my ballot ('18)
Edgar Martinez - Eligible since 2010; 8th time on my ballot ('10-'13,'15-'18)
Mike Mussina - Eligible since 2014; 3rd time on my ballot ('16-'18)
Johan Santana - Eligible since 2018; 1st time on my ballot ('18)
Curt Schilling - Eligible since 2013; 4th time on my ballot ('13,'16-'18)
Jim Thome - Eligible since 2018; 1st time on my ballot ('18)
Larry Walker - Eligible since 2011; 3rd time on my ballot ('12,'17,'18)

Dropped from last year's ballot:
Jeff Bagwell ('11-'17) (elected)
Tim Raines ('08-'17) (elected)
Ivan Rodriguez ('17) (elected)

Added this year:
Chipper Jones (first-time eligible)
Johan Santana (first-time eligible)
Jim Thome (first-time eligible)

Eligible, and voted for in the past, but not this year:
Fred McGriff ('10-'12)

	Matt - 3875 Posts 12/31/2017 @ 04:08:33 AM
In my personal record book, the 2005 AL Cy Young Award was won by Johan Santana, not Bartolo Colon. This gives Santana 3 straight Cy Young Awards and confirms his Hall of Fame worthiness as a Koufax-like peak candidate.		Rate this comment Yours: Rated 0 times.

	Matt - 3875 Posts 12/31/2017 @ 04:13:55 AM
It's worth noting that Jack Morris and Alan Trammell were already elected for enshrinement in 2018 by the Modern Baseball Era Committee of the Hall of Fame.		Rate this comment Yours: Rated 0 times.
Matt edited this 3 times, last at 12/31/2017 5:25:15 am

	Matt - 3875 Posts 12/31/2017 @ 05:08:49 AM
1) As with the past few years, I believe there are more than 10 eligible players who are worthy of the Hall of Fame. The fact that the Hall of Fame hasn't increased, or better yet, eliminated the limit on votes per ballot is stupid. If there were no limit, I would have also voted for: Andruw Jones, Jeff Kent, Fred McGriff, Manny Ramirez, Scott Rolen, Gary Sheffield, and Sammy Sosa. 2) Still not sure what to do about closers. As long as we're letting them in, it feels like Trevor Hoffman should be a yes, but there is really not a lot of difference between him and Billy Wagner, yet Wagner feels like a no. 3) Notable names eligible next year include: Mariano Rivera, Roy Halladay, Todd Helton, Andy Pettitte, Roy Oswalt, Lance Berkman, and Miguel Tejada		Rate this comment Yours: Rated 0 times.

	Alex - I don't need to get steady I know just how I feel 01/02/2018 @ 09:39:54 PM
Matt Wrote - 12/31/2017 @ 04:08:33 AM In my personal record book, the 2005 AL Cy Young Award was won by Johan Santana, not Bartolo Colon. This gives Santana 3 straight Cy Young Awards and confirms his Hall of Fame worthiness as a Koufax-like peak candidate. https://www.baseball-reference.com/awards/awards_2005.shtml#all_AL_CYA_voting Oh, he got a few more wins on a team that won 12 more games despite having the same or worse numbers in pretty much every other category.		Rate this comment Yours: Rated 0 times.

	Alex - I don't need to get steady I know just how I feel 01/02/2018 @ 09:41:46 PM
Top ten: Barry Bonds Roger Clemens Mike Mussina Larry Walker Curt Schilling Chipper Jones (new) Andrew Jones (new) Jim Thome (new) Scott Rolen (new) Edgar Martinez Dropped from last year - elected: Jeff Bagwell Tim Raines Dropped from last year – 10 vote limit: Vladimir Guerrero Manny Ramirez Dropped from last year – year limit: Additional votes: Vladimir Guerrero Manny Ramirez Johan Santana (new) Sammy Sosa Jeff Kent Gary Sheffield Fixed by committee: Alan Trammell My perpetual VC ballot (since 2000): Kevin Brown Bret Saberhagen Luis Tiant Kenny Lofton Lou Whitaker Dave Stieb Kevin Appier David Cone Keith Hernandez Chuck Finley Rafael Palmeiro Jim Edmonds Mark McGwire		Rate this comment Yours: Rated 0 times.

	Alex - 3619 Posts 01/02/2018 @ 09:50:02 PM
Matt Wrote - 12/31/2017 @ 05:08:49 AM 2) Still not sure what to do about closers. As long as we're letting them in, it feels like Trevor Hoffman should be a yes, but there is really not a lot of difference between him and Billy Wagner, yet Wagner feels like a no. For me, Rivera is the bar for modern closers. And he had twice the career WAR of Hoffman and Wagner and 50% more peak WAR and just generally more fame (pretty sure way more postseason too) so it's a no for other two.		Rate this comment Yours: Rated 0 times.

	Alex - 3619 Posts 01/02/2018 @ 10:01:00 PM
Speaking of not worthy, are we going to bring up Vizquel? He has 44 votes out of 159 known ballots. http://www.bbhoftracker.com/ I guess I do have him just a hair below McGriff, who is my last man out, but I don't see how anyone can vote for him over the 16 additional better options, unless their definition of PED suspect is "anyone who could actually hit".		Rate this comment Yours: Rated 0 times.

	Jeremy - Robots don't say 'ye' 01/03/2018 @ 11:59:40 AM
Alex Wrote - Yesterday @ 09:39:54 PM Matt Wrote - 12/31/2017 @ 04:08:33 AM In my personal record book, the 2005 AL Cy Young Award was won by Johan Santana, not Bartolo Colon. This gives Santana 3 straight Cy Young Awards and confirms his Hall of Fame worthiness as a Koufax-like peak candidate. https://www.baseball-reference.com/awards/awards_2005.shtml#all_AL_CYA_voting Oh, he got a few more wins on a team that won 12 more games despite having the same or worse numbers in pretty much every other category. That's crazy. Was it obvious at the time what a sham that was?		Rate this comment Yours: Rated 0 times.

	Jeremy - 9475 Posts 01/03/2018 @ 12:02:53 PM
Alex Wrote - Yesterday @ 09:50:02 PM Matt Wrote - 12/31/2017 @ 05:08:49 AM 2) Still not sure what to do about closers. As long as we're letting them in, it feels like Trevor Hoffman should be a yes, but there is really not a lot of difference between him and Billy Wagner, yet Wagner feels like a no. For me, Rivera is the bar for modern closers. And he had twice the career WAR of Hoffman and Wagner and 50% more peak WAR and just generally more fame (pretty sure way more postseason too) so it's a no for other two. If that's the bar then there will basically be 1 closer in it forever. Things like this would be a lot easier if there weren't limits. Just put in everyone who is worthy based on how dominant they were at the position they were asked to play. We shouldn't have to answer if a center fielder is more important than a closer, if both guys were heads and tails over their peers.		Rate this comment Yours: Rated 0 times.

	Sarah - How do you use these things? 01/03/2018 @ 01:16:59 PM
Jeremy Wrote - Yesterday @ 11:59:40 AM Alex Wrote - 01/02/2018 @ 09:39:54 PM Matt Wrote - 12/31/2017 @ 04:08:33 AM In my personal record book, the 2005 AL Cy Young Award was won by Johan Santana, not Bartolo Colon. This gives Santana 3 straight Cy Young Awards and confirms his Hall of Fame worthiness as a Koufax-like peak candidate. https://www.baseball-reference.com/awards/awards_2005.shtml#all_AL_CYA_voting Oh, he got a few more wins on a team that won 12 more games despite having the same or worse numbers in pretty much every other category. That's crazy. Was it obvious at the time what a sham that was? WTH? Do voters not even look at the numbers?		Rate this comment Yours: Rated 0 times.
Sarah messed with this 2 times, last at 01/04/2018 2:59:38 pm

	Scott - 6225 Posts 01/04/2018 @ 09:12:19 AM
Jeremy Wrote - Yesterday @ 11:59:40 AM Alex Wrote - 01/02/2018 @ 09:39:54 PM Matt Wrote - 12/31/2017 @ 04:08:33 AM In my personal record book, the 2005 AL Cy Young Award was won by Johan Santana, not Bartolo Colon. This gives Santana 3 straight Cy Young Awards and confirms his Hall of Fame worthiness as a Koufax-like peak candidate. https://www.baseball-reference.com/awards/awards_2005.shtml#all_AL_CYA_voting Oh, he got a few more wins on a team that won 12 more games despite having the same or worse numbers in pretty much every other category. That's crazy. Was it obvious at the time what a sham that was? Go look at the stats for the NL cy young voting for 2004 and explain to me how Ben Sheets ended up with the 9th most first place votes. And then answer how Roger Clemens ended up beating out anyone on that list, let alone everyone. Sheets was better in literally every category than Clemens. Does the voting every really make sense? Players on the better teams are almost always given deference in the end of season awards. The Brewers and Twins were well out of playoff contention in both of the seasons where their player looked to be snubbed from the end of season awards.		Rate this comment Yours: Rated 0 times.

	Sarah - 4605 Posts 01/04/2018 @ 02:57:10 PM
Scott Wrote - Today @ 09:12:19 AM Jeremy Wrote - Yesterday @ 11:59:40 AM Alex Wrote - 01/02/2018 @ 09:39:54 PM Matt Wrote - 12/31/2017 @ 04:08:33 AM In my personal record book, the 2005 AL Cy Young Award was won by Johan Santana, not Bartolo Colon. This gives Santana 3 straight Cy Young Awards and confirms his Hall of Fame worthiness as a Koufax-like peak candidate. https://www.baseball-reference.com/awards/awards_2005.shtml#all_AL_CYA_voting Oh, he got a few more wins on a team that won 12 more games despite having the same or worse numbers in pretty much every other category. That's crazy. Was it obvious at the time what a sham that was? Go look at the stats for the NL cy young voting for 2004 and explain to me how Ben Sheets ended up with the 9th most first place votes. And then answer how Roger Clemens ended up beating out anyone on that list, let alone everyone. Sheets was better in literally every category than Clemens. Does the voting every really make sense? Players on the better teams are almost always given deference in the end of season awards. The Brewers and Twins were well out of playoff contention in both of the seasons where their player looked to be snubbed from the end of season awards. Ha, I needed that. If anything, I'd say Randy Johnson got hosed.		Rate this comment Yours: Rated 0 times.
Sarah perfected this at 01/04/2018 2:57:39 pm

	Jeremy - Robots don't say 'ye' 01/04/2018 @ 03:14:22 PM
Scott Wrote - Today @ 09:12:19 AM Sheets was better in literally every category than Clemens. Except wins, losses, hits, runs, homeruns, balks, and wild pitches.		Rate this comment Yours: Rated 0 times.
Jeremy screwed with this at 01/04/2018 3:43:21 pm

	Alex - 3619 Posts 01/04/2018 @ 09:48:31 PM
Jeremy Wrote - Yesterday @ 11:59:40 AM Alex Wrote - 01/02/2018 @ 09:39:54 PM Matt Wrote - 12/31/2017 @ 04:08:33 AM In my personal record book, the 2005 AL Cy Young Award was won by Johan Santana, not Bartolo Colon. This gives Santana 3 straight Cy Young Awards and confirms his Hall of Fame worthiness as a Koufax-like peak candidate. https://www.baseball-reference.com/awards/awards_2005.shtml#all_AL_CYA_voting Oh, he got a few more wins on a team that won 12 more games despite having the same or worse numbers in pretty much every other category. That's crazy. Was it obvious at the time what a sham that was? Could go back and check the nutcan reaction at the time, if the search worked		Rate this comment Yours: Rated 0 times.

	Alex - 3619 Posts 01/04/2018 @ 09:52:28 PM
Jeremy Wrote - Yesterday @ 12:02:53 PM Alex Wrote - 01/02/2018 @ 09:50:02 PM Matt Wrote - 12/31/2017 @ 05:08:49 AM 2) Still not sure what to do about closers. As long as we're letting them in, it feels like Trevor Hoffman should be a yes, but there is really not a lot of difference between him and Billy Wagner, yet Wagner feels like a no. For me, Rivera is the bar for modern closers. And he had twice the career WAR of Hoffman and Wagner and 50% more peak WAR and just generally more fame (pretty sure way more postseason too) so it's a no for other two. If that's the bar then there will basically be 1 closer in it forever. Things like this would be a lot easier if there weren't limits. Just put in everyone who is worthy based on how dominant they were at the position they were asked to play. We shouldn't have to answer if a center fielder is more important than a closer, if both guys were heads and tails over their peers. Maybe he would be the only one. For voters who look at advanced stats though, teams that use their best reliever in the highest leverage scenario instead of only save situations might make it more likely for someone else to join him. I guess I'm not saying someone would have to be equal or better to Riveria, but at least closish.		Rate this comment Yours: Rated 0 times.

	PackOne - 1528 Posts 01/11/2018 @ 06:02:09 AM
I hope Curt Schilling never gets in.		Rate this comment Yours: Rated 0 times.

	Matt - 3875 Posts 01/24/2018 @ 04:17:56 PM
Alex Wrote - 01/04/2018 @ 09:52:28 PM Jeremy Wrote - 01/03/2018 @ 12:02:53 PM Alex Wrote - 01/02/2018 @ 09:50:02 PM Matt Wrote - 12/31/2017 @ 05:08:49 AM 2) Still not sure what to do about closers. As long as we're letting them in, it feels like Trevor Hoffman should be a yes, but there is really not a lot of difference between him and Billy Wagner, yet Wagner feels like a no. For me, Rivera is the bar for modern closers. And he had twice the career WAR of Hoffman and Wagner and 50% more peak WAR and just generally more fame (pretty sure way more postseason too) so it's a no for other two. If that's the bar then there will basically be 1 closer in it forever. Things like this would be a lot easier if there weren't limits. Just put in everyone who is worthy based on how dominant they were at the position they were asked to play. We shouldn't have to answer if a center fielder is more important than a closer, if both guys were heads and tails over their peers. Maybe he would be the only one. For voters who look at advanced stats though, teams that use their best reliever in the highest leverage scenario instead of only save situations might make it more likely for someone else to join him. I guess I'm not saying someone would have to be equal or better to Riveria, but at least closish. Yeah, out of the modern 1 inning closers, Rivera is far and away the best and deserves to go in. His WAR (57.1) stacks up well with some of the lower end starters in the HOF, as well as beating out relievers like Hoyt Wilhelm (47.3) and Goose Gossage (42.0), who were more of the 2-3 inning firemen relievers of the past, and who I think are both fine HOFers, even if their value might not be as much as the average starting pitcher or position player in the HOF. It seems like the top non-Rivera relievers top out around 25-30 WAR. Some examples: Lee Smith (29.6), Trevor Hoffman (28.4), Billy Wagner (28.1), Joe Nathan (27.2), Rollie Fingers (26.1), Dan Quisenberry (25.4), Bruce Sutter (24.6). Fingers and Sutter are in the hall already, and Hoffman will likely join them soon. Lee Smith stayed on the ballot for the max 15 years. Wagner has stuck around with low support for 3 years so far. Quisenberry was one and done, and Nathan is not yet eligible, but probably won't get much support either. What's my point? I don't know. I guess if you're of the view that relievers should be judged only against relievers than a 25-30 range of WAR might be a good benchmark for worthiness. I'm not sure I'm there though. I also don't think I'm at a place where Rivera is the only modern reliever who deserves enshrinement and that we should dismiss famous closers who are big names in the game just because their position is overvalued compared to others. A compromise position would be to make the benchmark for relievers at 35+ WAR, but I don't know if any of those besides Rivera even exist (I didn't dig that far) or are even likely to exist unless the usage of top relievers changes in the future, so I don't know if that position works either.		Rate this comment Yours: Rated 0 times.

	Matt - Washington Bureau Chief 01/24/2018 @ 04:45:30 PM
Alex Wrote - 01/02/2018 @ 10:01:00 PM Speaking of not worthy, are we going to bring up Vizquel? He has 44 votes out of 159 known ballots. http://www.bbhoftracker.com/ I guess I do have him just a hair below McGriff, who is my last man out, but I don't see how anyone can vote for him over the 16 additional better options, unless their definition of PED suspect is "anyone who could actually hit". I was planning on saying something about him in my "also receiving votes" comment, but forgot. To me, he's kind of like Jack Morris, both are players who's reputations are much greater than the stats show. As with Morris, if Vizquel eventually gets in, I won't be outraged even though there will be better players who are more deserving that are left out. I'm actually kind of ok with voters giving players a bump based on, for a lack of better term, whether they "feel like HOFers" when the stats don't back that up. What bothers me more is that many aren't willing to give any thought to the reverse. Players who don't feel like HOFers, but who's stats put them solidly in compared to those already enshrined. For me this covers players like Larry Walker, Scott Rolen, Kevin Brown and others. I think there is room enough for players from both groups to join the no-doubters in the Hall of Fame.		Rate this comment Yours: Rated 0 times.
Matt perfected this 2 times, last at 01/24/2018 5:00:23 pm

	Scott - 6225 Posts 01/24/2018 @ 05:48:14 PM
Former Brewers closer Trevor Hoffman is in.		Rate this comment Yours: Rated 0 times.

	Scott - 6225 Posts 01/24/2018 @ 05:49:11 PM
Jeremy Wrote - 01/04/2018 @ 03:14:22 PM Scott Wrote - 01/04/2018 @ 09:12:19 AM Sheets was better in literally every category than Clemens. Except wins, losses, hits, runs, homeruns, balks, and wild pitches. Well, I obviously meant every category that I deemed to be important.		Rate this comment Yours: Rated 0 times.

	Matt - 3875 Posts 01/24/2018 @ 05:51:53 PM
https://baseballhall.org/news/hof-2018-ballot-announced Chipper Jones, Vladimir Guerrero, Jim Thome, and Trevor Hoffman elected. Edgar Martinez close, Johan Santana falls off the ballot.		Rate this comment Yours: Rated 0 times.