Baseball Hall of Fame 2013 Edition
12/31/2012 2:25 pm
It's time for my tenth annual "If I had a Hall of Fame Vote" post.
My previous ballots:
2004 - 2005 - 2006 - 2007 - 2008 - 2009 - 2010 - 2011 - 2012
A few reminders:
1. Voters can vote for up to ten players.
2. I'm a "Big Hall" guy so I voted for ten.
3. I reserve the right not to have reasonable explanations for any or all of my selections.
4. To be inducted, players need to be named on 75% of the ballots cast.
5. The real results will be announced on January 9th.
Holdovers from last year - Jeff Bagwell, Edgar Martinez, Don Mattingly, Fred McGriff, Mark McGwire, Jack Morris, Dale Murphy, Rafael Palmeiro, Tim Raines, Lee Smith, Alan Trammell, Larry Walker, Bernie Williams
First-timers - Sandy Alomar, Craig Biggio, Barry Bonds, Jeff Cirillo, Royce Clayton, Roger Clemens, Jeff Conine, Steve Finley, Julio Franco, Shawn Green
Roberto Hernandez, Ryan Klesko, Kenny Lofton, Jose Mesa, Mike Piazza, Reggie Sanders, Curt Schilling, Aaron Sele, Sammy Sosa, Mike Stanton, Todd Walker, David Wells, Rondell White, Woody Williams
Go to Baseball Reference.com for player stats.
Jeff Bagwell - Eligible since 2011; 3rd time on my ballot ('11-'13)
Craig Biggio - Eligible since 2013; 1st time on my ballot ('13)
Barry Bonds - Eligible since 2013; 1st time on my ballot ('13)
Roger Clemens - Eligible since 2013; 1st time on my ballot ('13)
Edgar Martinez - Eligible since 2010; 4th time on my ballot ('10-'13)
Mark McGwire - Eligible since 2007; 7th time on my ballot ('07-'13)
Mike Piazza - Eligible since 2013; 1st time on my ballot ('13)
Tim Raines - Eligible since 2008; 6th time on my ballot ('08-'13)
Curt Schilling - Eligible since 2013; 1st time on my ballot ('13)
Alan Trammell - Eligible since 2002; 10th time on my ballot ('04-'13)
Dropped from last year's ballot:
Barry Larkin ('10-'12)(elected)
Fred McGriff ('10-'12)(out of top ten)
Dale Murphy ('08-'12)(out of top ten)
Rafael Palmeiro ('12)(out of top ten)
Larry Walker ('12)(out of top ten)
Added this year (all first-time eligible):
Eligible, and voted for in the past, but not this year:
Fred McGriff ('10-'12)
Jack Morris ('04-'09)
Dale Murphy ('08-'12)
Rafael Palmeiro ('12)
Lee Smith ('06,'07)
Larry Walker ('12)
|Matt - Washington Bureau Chief|
After my first culling of the eligible names, I had a list of twenty* players who, in my view, have a legitimate case for the Hall of Fame. In addition to the ten I voted for, I had Jack Morris, Fred McGriff, Dale Murphy, Rafael Palmeiro, Lee Smith, Larry Walker, Don Mattingly, Sammy Sosa, Kenny Lofton, and Bernie Williams also listed.
If I had room, I probably would have also voted for McGriff, Murphy, Palmeiro, Sosa, and Walker (still not 100% on him, but I'll give him the benefit of the doubt), though if any of the other five made it, I wouldn't feel it an outrage.
*That's a ridiculous number and the voters better start clearing this up, since it will get even worse next year with Greg Maddux, Frank Thomas, Tom Glavine, Jeff Kent, and Mike Mussina among the newly eligible in 2014.
|Matt - Washington Bureau Chief|
|Also, in previously released news, the HoF Veterans Committee elected (really) old-timer Deacon White, umpire Hank O'Day, and former Yankees owner Jacob Ruppert to the Hall.|
|Alex - Refactor Mercilessly|
My 2013 top ten, in more or less order: Barry Bonds, Roger Clements, Jeff Bagwell, Larry Walker, Curt Schilling, Alan Trammell, Edgar Martinez, Craig Biggio, Mike Piazza, Kenny Lofton
Dropped - elected: Barry Larkin
Dropped - HOF foolishness: Fred McGriff, Mark McGwire, Rafael Palmeiro, Tim Raines, Bernie Williams
Added: Barry Bonds, Roger Clements, Curt Schilling, Craig Biggio, Mike Piazza, Kenny Lofton
If there wasn't a ballot limit, I'd also include Tim Raines, Sammy Sosa, Rafael Palmeiro, Mark McGwire, Fred McGriff. But Bernie Williams didn't make the cut with my new method. I did this approximately forever ago, so lets see if I can even remember.
My starting baseline was greater than or equal 30 WAR7 from BR. Then I used some stats to make a points rating system.
+1 point for best season WAR greater than 8, -1 if less than 6
+1 point for 2nd best season WAR greater than 7, -1 if less than 6
+1 point for 3rd best season WAR greater than 7, -1 if less than 5
Consider this the Sammy Sosa inspired part of the equation. He only got +1 total, but his best season was 10.1 and I needed someway to give a bonus for that. Also the -1s penalize guys with shallow peaks.
Then I listed out each season that each player had with greater than 2.5 WAR. This required adding lots of columns for Barry Bonds. Then I totaled up the amount over 2.5 per season that player had for their career. +1 for totals greater than 25, -1 if less than 20. Again, Bonds had 105, Clemens was next closest at 75.2, Bagwell 3rd with 41.4.
Then just a count of greater than 2.5 WAR seasons. +1 point if greater than 10, -1 if less than 8.
Next I got the Wins Above Average (WAA) for each player. +1 point for career totals over 35.
BR also shows Bill James HOFs stat which compares player stats to players already in the HOF. 50 HOFs is an average HOF, so +1 point for HOFs greater than or equal 50 to separate the boys from the men since the ballot is way overcrowded.
The other stat they had that I liked was the JAWS, sort of peak plus totals combo evaluation.
So then the only question I had was again, can I vote for a DH over some of these other guys and I said yes sure, WAR takes defense into account so if Martinez qualifies, he qualifies. I'd say the cut off is around 0 but it's case by case. I'd still vote for McGriff, but like I said I changed my mind on Bernie. Also this put McGwire barely in, which was a bit surprising to me and I guess with that I mind I won't be upset if he never makes it. But Bonds...I mean come on people. Seriously.
Barry Bonds 8
Roger Clemens 8
Jeff Bagwell 7
Larry Walker 7
Curt Schilling 7
Alan Trammell 5
Edgar Martinez 5
Craig Biggio 5
Mike Piazza 5
Kenny Lofton 5
Tim Raines 3
Sammy Sosa 3
Rafael Palmeiro 3
Mark McGwire 1
Fred McGriff 0
Bernie Williams -1
Dale Murphy -1
Don Mattingly -2
Jack Morris -4
Steve Finley -5
|Alex perfected this at 12/31/2012 6:38:50 pm|
|Matt - 3441 Posts|
|To me, Lofton and L. Walker are both in the category where the more advanced stats rate them better than they seemed when they were playing. Because of this, I probably end up penalizing Walker more than I should, but it just doesn't feel right to put him above the ten I voted for. That's why he makes my extended list, but not my top 10 this year. Lofton is not quite up to Walker's level on both the stats or the "feel" test, so he's out for now.|
|Alex - 3619 Posts|
Matt Wrote - Today @ 07:08:55 PM
To me, Lofton and L. Walker are both in the category where the more advanced stats rate them better than they seemed when they were playing. Because of this, I probably end up penalizing Walker more than I should, but it just doesn't feel right to put him above the ten I voted for. That's why he makes my extended list, but not my top 10 this year. Lofton is not quite up to Walker's level on both the stats or the "feel" test, so he's out for now.
I wouldn't argue too much with taking Raines over either of them for the top 10. But I would argue that they both out rank McGwire. McGwire has less than 3 more batting WAR than Walker, but he had -12.8 fielding WAR at what's generally considered the easiest position while Walker has a barely positive fielding WAR playing mostly OF.
I always liked Lofton for whatever reason so I guess I'm a little biased there. But here's the WAR matchup (for seasons of 2.5+)
Kenny Lofton 7.3 7.1 6.3 5.7 5.4 5.3 4.9 3.8 3.4 3.2
Mark McGwire 7.2 6.2 6.2 5.5 5.2 4.8 4.1 3.2 2.9
Lofton wins if we're looking at defense and base running too and not just HRs.
|Alex perfected this at 12/31/2012 7:53:30 pm|
|Scott - Resident Tech Support|
|I can't believe you didn't vote for Jeff Cirillo. Career .296 hitter, 6 seasons of .310+ batting average. Travesty, I say. TRAVESTY!|
|Matt - Washington Bureau Chief|
No one got in via the writers this year.
In other news, the writers are idiots.
|Jeremy - No one's gay for Moleman|
I guess I can see "sticking it" to Bonds by not letting him in on his first chance, but I hope this isn't a sign of things to come. I mean, I won't cry myself to sleep every night if he doesn't make it, but it's unfair to make him poster boy for the steroid era. I guess we'll never know what his numbers would have been without the roids, but...I mean come on people. Seriously.
Lots of guys were on steroids. That doesn't excuse it, although I don't necessarily think I wan't these guys to play moral police. Bonds was still (one very large) head and shoulders above everyone else. That has to mean something.
|Jeremy screwed with this at 01/09/2013 2:13:53 pm|
|Alex - 3619 Posts|
Commenting on the election, Hall of Fame president Jeff Idelson said, “The standards for earning election to the Hall of Fame have been very high ever since the rules were created in 1936. We realize the challenges voters are faced with in this era. The Hall of Fame has always entrusted the exclusive voting privilege to the Baseball Writers’ Association of America. We remain pleased with their role in evaluating candidates based on the criteria we provide.”
Need to start an Internet pledge to boycott the HOF until they get the message, if one doesn't already exist.
|Alex - But let history remember, that as free men, we chose to make it so!|
|Also, 1 and done for Lofton is crazy stupid.|
|Scott - You're going to have to call your hardware guy. It's not a software issue.|
|If the steroids era is a black eye for baseball, the writers just blackened the other eye with this vote.|
|Sarah - How do you use these things?|