Baseball Hall of Fame 2014 Edition

12/31/2013 3:32 am
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It's time for my eleventh annual "If I had a Hall of Fame Vote" post.

My previous ballots:
2004 - 2005 - 2006 - 2007 - 2008 - 2009 - 2010 - 2011 - 2012 - 2013

A few reminders:
1. Voters can vote for up to ten players.
2. I'm a "Big Hall" guy so I voted for ten.
3. I reserve the right not to have reasonable explanations for any or all of my selections.
4. To be inducted, players need to be named on 75% of the ballots cast.
5. The real results will be announced on January 8th.

Eligible Players:

Holdovers from last year - Jeff Bagwell, Craig Biggio, Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Edgar Martinez, Don Mattingly, Fred McGriff, Mark McGwire, Jack Morris, Rafael Palmeiro, Mike Piazza, Tim Raines, Curt Schilling, Lee Smith, Sammy Sosa, Alan Trammell, Larry Walker

First-timers - Moises Alou, Armando Benitez, Sean Casey, Ray Durham, Eric Gagne, Tom Glavine, Luis Gonzalez, Jacque Jones, Todd Jones, Jeff Kent, Paul Lo Duca, Greg Maddux, Mike Mussina, Hideo Nomo, Kenny Rogers, Richie Sexson, J.T. Snow, Frank Thomas, Mike Timlin


Go to Baseball Reference.com for player stats.


My Ballot:

Jeff Bagwell - Eligible since 2011; 4th time on my ballot ('11-'14)
Craig Biggio - Eligible since 2013; 2nd time on my ballot ('13,'14)
Barry Bonds - Eligible since 2013; 2nd time on my ballot ('13,'14)
Roger Clemens - Eligible since 2013; 2nd time on my ballot ('13,'14)
Tom Glavine - Eligible since 2014; 1st time on my ballot ('14)
Greg Maddux - Eligible since 2014; 1st time on my ballot ('14)
Mike Piazza - Eligible since 2013; 2nd time on my ballot ('13,'14)
Tim Raines - Eligible since 2008; 7th time on my ballot ('08-'14)
Frank Thomas - Eligible since 2014; 1st time on my ballot ('14)
Alan Trammell - Eligible since 2002; 11th time on my ballot ('04-'14)


Dropped from last year's ballot:
Edgar Martinez ('10-'13) (out of top ten)
Mark McGwire ('07-'13) (out of top ten)
Curt Schilling ('13) (out of top ten)

Added this year (all first-time eligible):
Tom Glavine
Greg Maddux
Frank Thomas

Eligible, and voted for in the past, but not this year:
Edgar Martinez ('10-'13)
Fred McGriff ('10-'12)
Mark McGwire ('07-'13)
Jack Morris ('04-'09)
Rafael Palmeiro ('12)
Curt Schilling ('13)
Lee Smith ('06,'07)
Larry Walker ('12)
matt.jpgMatt - 3354 Posts
12/31/2013 @ 03:42:18 AM
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By my count, there are 22 players on the ballot this year with a good case to be inducted. In addition to the ten on my ballot, I would have voted for: Edgar Martinez, Fred McGriff, Mark McGwire, Rafael Palmeiro, Curt Schilling, Sammy Sosa, Larry Walker, Jeff Kent, and Mike Mussina. I'll throw Jack Morris in also, to bring me up to a second full ballot. Don Mattingly and Lee Smith are the last two, and while I'm not sure I'd vote for them, I wouldn't be outraged if they made it in.

One again, the writers better start inducting players in bunches before this backlog gets even worse than it already is. My prediction is that Maddux, Glavine, Thomas, and Biggio will definitely get in. Jack Morris will be close and could go either way, while Bagwell and Piazza will fall just short.
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thumbnailCAW1I0O3.gifMatt - 3354 Posts
12/31/2013 @ 03:49:51 AM
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Also, in previous Hall of Fame news, the Veterans Committee for the Expansion Era elected Bobby Cox, Tony LaRussa and Joe Torre.
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newalex.jpgAlex - Ignorance is bliss to those uneducated
12/31/2013 @ 02:30:27 PM
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Top ten: Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Greg Maddux, Jeff Bagwell, Mike Mussina, Larry Walker, Curt Schilling, Frank Thomas, Tom Glavine, Mike Piazza

Dropped from last year - elected: wtf
Dropped from last year - HOF foolishness: Alan Trammell, Edgar Martinez, Craig Biggio, Kenny Lofton
Added from last year: Greg Maddux, Mike Mussina, Frank Thomas, Tom Glavine

As Matt mentioned there's way more than 10 candidates that should be getting votes this year too. And someone outside the top 5 is going to get really screwed, because Matt and I had 3 differences between our top 10, which means that the few actual voters who fill their ballots are probably going to come up with different top 10s as well. So anyway, here's who else I would vote for.

Additional votes: Alan Trammell, Edgar Martinez, Craig Biggio, Tim Raines, Sammy Sosa, Rafael Palmeiro, Jeff Kent, Mark McGwire (think I've flip flopped every year on McGriff, so this year it's a no)

I more or less stuck with the same evaluation system that I rambled about in last year's comments so see those if interested. I probably should be calibrating this better, but 8 is the max score and 0 is an extremely borderline candidate (I reserve the right to fudge the numbers a bit as needed).
Barry Bonds 8
Roger Clemens 8
Greg Maddux 8
Jeff Bagwell 7
Mike Mussina 7
Curt Schilling 7
Frank Thomas 7
Larry Walker 7
Tom Glavine 6
Edgar Martinez 5
Alan Trammell 5
Craig Biggio 5
Mike Piazza 5
Tim Raines 4
Sammy Sosa 3
Rafael Palmeiro 3
Jeff Kent 3
Mark McGwire 1
Fred McGriff 0
Luis Gonzalez 0
Kenny Rogers -2
Don Mattingly -2
Jack Morris -4
Moises Alou -4

As part of evaluating this year's crop of pitchers, I've come to the conclusion that there's an extra level of ridiculousness when it comes to the lack of support for pitchers in general. Also there's a couple guys who only got one year on the real ballot which I have to assume is due at least partially to the "I can't vote for this guy in his first year" BS. So along with my "regulation" ballot and my "overflow" ballot, I'm creating my own "veterans committee" ballot. The honorary namesake for this year's ballot is Kenny Lofton for being one and done last year. I'm assuming that there will be a screw up in the voting process every year from here on out and the most egregious drop from the ballot gets naming honors. For this initial ballot I searched through the Baseball Reference data for ballots starting in 2000 to the present looking for a couple guys that I actually did have on my ballot at one point, and also reconsidering a number of pitchers. Without further ado (3rd column is years on actual ballot)

Kevin Brown 7 1
Bret Saberhagen 7 1
Luis Tiant 5 15
Kenny Lofton 5 1
Lou Whitaker 4 1
Dave Stieb 4 1
Kevin Appier 4 1
David Cone 4 1
Keith Hernandez 3 9
Chuck Finley 3 1

Most of these went down before I started doing my own ballot, but I did previously vote for Lofton and Cone. And missed on Brown, Appier and Finley

Here are some links looking at statistics on the rate that players have been elected to the hall.
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-hall-of-fames-standard-and-its-biggest-problem/
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/a-follow-up-thought-on-the-hall-of-fame-standard/

Quote from the second link, "For me, perhaps the most telling data point is this.

Born in 1940 or before, 5,000 PA/2,000 IP: 593 players, 144 HOF, 24.3% HOF%
Born between 1941-1970, 5,000 PA/2,000 IP: 475 players, 33 HOF, 6.9% HOF%"
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Alex screwed with this at 12/31/2013 2:31:52 pm
2887.gifAlex - I don't need to get steady I know just how I feel
12/31/2013 @ 02:44:48 PM
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Matt Wrote - Today @ 03:42:18 AM
One again, the writers better start inducting players in bunches before this backlog gets even worse than it already is. My prediction is that Maddux, Glavine, Thomas, and Biggio will definitely get in. Jack Morris will be close and could go either way, while Bagwell and Piazza will fall just short.


As far as predictions, who knows? The voting in the past has made little sense, like why was Biggio the top vote getter last year and I don't even have him in my top ten this year? I would say Maddux is the only the lock.
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thumbnailCAW1I0O3.gifMatt - Ombudsman
01/01/2014 @ 04:41:43 AM
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It's going back a little more, but for your veterans committee, I'd add Bobby Grich. He was one and done in 1992, yet is one of the better 2nd baseman of his (or any) time. Using your method, I got a score of 6 for him, assuming I did it right.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/grichbo01.shtml
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newalex.jpgAlex - You've got to trust your instinct, and let go of regret
01/01/2014 @ 03:54:51 PM
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I just stopped at 2000 because it was getting to the point of guys that I'd only seen on baseball cards. I came up with a score of 7, the HOFs score was the only thing he didn't hit. And since that's a rating based on more traditional stats that would probably at least partially explain why he didn't get in.
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thumbnailCAW1I0O3.gifMatt - Washington Bureau Chief
01/08/2014 @ 01:04:30 PM
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Maddux, Glavine, and Thomas get in. Biggio misses by a hair.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/2014/01/08/baseball-hall-of-fame-election-greg-maddux-tom-glavine-frank-thomas-craig-biggio/4372235/
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Matt screwed with this at 01/08/2014 1:19:07 pm
scott.jpgScott - If you aren't enough without it, you'll never be enough with it.
01/08/2014 @ 07:43:43 PM
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Chicks Dig the Long Ball

*note: is it possible to embed a youtube video in a nutcan comment? Neither of the youtube embed links worked.
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Scott edited this 2 times, last at 01/08/2014 7:45:22 pm
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