MLB Regular Season 2012: collector's limited unrated remixed special edition with bonus features, deleted scenes, and a stick of late 80s baseball card gum

07/09/2012 10:28 pm
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The 2nd half of the MLB season is now upon us. Fielder won his second home run derby, becoming just the 2nd player to win more than once.

The Brewers finished the first half 6 games out of the wild card spot. Ryan Braun answered the skeptics with probably the best half of baseball of his young career. And the Brewers will find out very soon if they will be sellers or buyers in the free agent market, as their first 9 games in the 2nd half are against division foes, meaning the season could turn one way or another drastically right from the gataes.

The Twins have a long way to go this season, but Joe Mauer's resurgence after a substandard 2011 along with Trevor Plouffe's strong start to what could be a promising career have to give Twins fans hope for the future.

The 2012 collector's edition is coming at you in stunning 1080p. Ready...Go!
scott.jpgScott - Ma'am, can you make sure your computer is turned on?
07/13/2012 @ 11:11:29 AM
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Random stats enthusiasts might someday look back on this with excitement: Zack Greinke will pitch tonight in what will be his 3rd straight start in 3 team games in the same season. That's the first time that has happened in 95 years. Greinke was ejected in the first inning on Saturday July 7, then started the next day, then the all-star break allowed him to rest and start in the first game after the break.
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scott.jpgScott - Resident Tech Support
07/17/2012 @ 08:02:25 AM
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I can't believe I hadn't put it together before, but John Axford wears the same number that Derrik Turnbow wore: 59. I think the John Axford era officially ended last night. Additionally, I think any chance the Brewers had to regain some ground and turn the season around took a huge hit last night. They could have pulled to within 6 games of first in their division, but now they stand at 8 games back. They are in the midst of a much hyped 9 game stretch of post all-star break games against division opponents, in which we were supposed to learn by the end whether they would be buyers or sellers. Through 4 games in this make or break portion of the season, they are 2-2 and have gained 0 games on the division leaders. Maybe it's my fault to clinging to a hope that isn't there. There starting pitching has never been better, and their offense is still getting it done. Their bullpen is simply terrible, probably the worst I have ever seen it.
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scott.jpgScott - Resident Tech Support
07/17/2012 @ 09:12:18 AM
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Michael Fiers:
I'll grant that he is on the low end for qualifying for rookie of the year because of his late arrival, but he shouldn't necessarily be discounted, especially since other rookie pitchers have amassed a lot more innings than him. But he does have 8 starts and 50+ innings, so I'll compare him to other pitchers with at least 8 starts, and make no comments other than where he ranks statitistically among NL rookie pitchers.
He ranks first in ERA, WHIP, QS%, K/bb, K/9, .BAA, .OBP against, Slugging against, and OPS against. And despite start 7 fewer games than Arizona's Wade Miley, he has 6 quality starts to Miley's 9.

Fiers has to get his innings up throughout the rest of the year (although that shouldn't be difficult because he's averaging nearly 7 innings per start) to really be considered. But either way, it looks like Fiers is off to a good start and is worthy of being in the conversation, at least eventually.
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Scott perfected this 2 times, last at 07/17/2012 9:14:02 am
newalex.jpgAlex - I don't need to get steady I know just how I feel
07/17/2012 @ 01:29:25 PM
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Scott Wrote - Today @ 08:02:25 AM
I can't believe I hadn't put it together before, but John Axford wears the same number that Derrik Turnbow wore: 59. I think the John Axford era officially ended last night. Additionally, I think any chance the Brewers had to regain some ground and turn the season around took a huge hit last night. They could have pulled to within 6 games of first in their division, but now they stand at 8 games back. They are in the midst of a much hyped 9 game stretch of post all-star break games against division opponents, in which we were supposed to learn by the end whether they would be buyers or sellers. Through 4 games in this make or break portion of the season, they are 2-2 and have gained 0 games on the division leaders. Maybe it's my fault to clinging to a hope that isn't there. There starting pitching has never been better, and their offense is still getting it done. Their bullpen is simply terrible, probably the worst I have ever seen it.


Too soon to totally give up on Axford yet.

It is your fault for clinging to hope. Not that there isn't still some hope, but it's less than 10% hope so start bracing yourself for the soon to be inevitable.
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scott.jpgScott - You're going to have to call your hardware guy. It's not a software issue.
07/20/2012 @ 08:48:21 AM
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Brewers have 2nd most blown saves in baseball
This stat sort of blew my mind. It's been obvious that the Brewers bullpen has struggled all year, but I never really realized just how bad it was. If the Brewers were just an "average" team in terms of blown saves, they would be .5 games out of first in their division. And this isn't just an Axford problem. KRod and Kameron Loe both have 4 blown saves. One of the biggest strengths of their team last year, the back end of their bullpen, is almost definitely the single difference between a team that won 96 games and a team that is clinging to a prayer this year. Perhaps there are other factors like why are there so many games that are decided by just on run. But the quantity of blown saves is certainly telling.
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hoochpage.JPGSarah - 4107 Posts
07/23/2012 @ 09:30:36 PM
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Add another blown save to that total from tonight...
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newalex.jpgAlex - Refactor Mercilessly
07/23/2012 @ 09:45:29 PM
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K-Fraud strikes again

http://www.fangraphs.com/livewins.aspx?date=2012-07-23&team=Phillies&dh=0&season=2012
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scott.jpgScott - If you aren't enough without it, you'll never be enough with it.
07/24/2012 @ 08:45:47 AM
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The Brewers have 20 saves as a team, and 17 blown saves. If the season wasn't dead after Sunday, it certainly was given an insurance dagger to the kidney last night.
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Scott edited this at 07/24/2012 8:45:55 am
scott.jpgScott - No, I did not change your screen saver settings
07/24/2012 @ 09:07:21 PM
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And not to mention Manny Par-fraud, and Kamfraud Loe. And Josfraud Veras. Oh, and John Axfraud. (I think Axford can recover, but you get the point). My prediction is that the entire bullpen other than Axord are gone by opening day next season.

Tom Hardricourt probably summed up my feelings better than anyone with this tweet:
"How do you explain every single pitcher in bullpen having a bad year, including a handful who were brilliant in 2011? It's inexplicable."

I will say that every ounce of emotional attachment I had for the 2012 Brewers ended Sunday, so the last two nights were almost laughable. At least that's good. When does football start?
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Scott edited this at 07/24/2012 9:08:21 pm
2887.gifAlex - Ignorance is bliss to those uneducated
07/24/2012 @ 10:33:02 PM
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Football? What about your emotional attachment to the 2013 Brewers? Let's see some trades already!

Rodriguez will be gone one way or another The rest probably will be back unless they get traded before the deadline.
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2887.gifAlex - Ignorance is bliss to those uneducated
07/25/2012 @ 01:21:29 PM
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With Hamels signing for $144 million and simultaneously confirming that there's almost no chance the Brewers will want to afford a Grienke extension and removing the Brewers only real competition in star pitchers available via trade, Grienke trade watch '12 is at defcon 1...
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scott.jpgScott - 6225 Posts
07/25/2012 @ 01:50:30 PM
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I'm shocked we haven't heard anything yet. In fact, I really thought the Brewers took Greinke out of the game last night with only 87 pitches because they were going to announce a trade right after. He will have one more start between now and the trade deadline, I would think that whoever wants him would want to get as many starts out of him as possible. Unless the all-star break stretch has people leary and want to see two good starts from him before putting in for him.

Good news today, though. The Brewers can't blow a save when their down 5-1 in the 5th! Although, I wouldn't put it past them to find a way to come from behind just to blow it for good measure.

And it's grEInke.
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Scott screwed with this at 07/25/2012 1:51:18 pm
scott.jpgScott - Get Up! Get outta here! Gone!
07/25/2012 @ 04:12:31 PM
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Huh. I guess I was wrong. You can blow a save even when trailing 5-1.
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scott.jpgScott - 6225 Posts
07/25/2012 @ 09:41:20 PM
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For those that don't see my facebook posts: The Brewers lost 3 straight to the Phillies all by a score of 7-6, all as a result of blown save in the Phillies last at bat. I'd like to know the last time a time was swept by a team with the scores the same for all three games, and couple that with all 3 games being decided by the last at bat.
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newalex.jpgAlex - Who controls the past now controls the future
07/29/2012 @ 02:25:51 PM
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I'd feel pretty safe saying that's never happened before.

So grEInke was traded. A number of articles I read said that the Angels gave up a decent amount for only 2 guaranteed months, so I guess that's good for the Brewers perspective. Hopefully Jean Segura can be a decent starting SS next year, even if he eventually has to move to 2B or 3B. Overall it seems like a decent trade.

Unfortunately the rest of the Brewers trade pieces have underperformed all year and they probably can't even give them away for salary relief. They flipped Kottaras for a pitcher, which is fine because they really didn't need him anymore. But I know I at least was hoping if they were going to be sellers that they could dump Marcum, KRod, and Wolf for some prospects and that's looking pretty unlikely. Unless some team really wants a lefty and they can move Wolf. So that kind of sucks and will make it that much harder to reload the talent pool for the next 3 years. Which are very important years because Braun won't be in his prime forever.

I unscientifically have their 2013 payroll at around $70 million after the arb raises kick in (which is where I just ballparked some numbers). That's assuming they don't want to pay Wolf $10 million and turn down their option. So at this point the rotation and to a lesser extent the bullpen (unless they let some arb arms walk) is wide open for next season, but they may have the payroll space to go after a plus starter (meaning not another Wolf or Suppan) too.
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2887.gifAlex - 3618 Posts
07/29/2012 @ 02:53:03 PM
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I don't think I've done this before for myself, so I thought I'd share. The recent Ben Sheets sightings got me thinking about how his win-loss record for the Brewers was never impressive and that probably made him somewhat underrated both among Brewers' fans and in general. But that was back before advanced stats had gone mainstream (ish? I'm not really sure where that's at right now). And I know for sure that among Brewers fans he picked up the "injury prone" label which may or may not have been fair.

So I headed over to fangraphs, ignored his rookie year, and pulled up the leaderboard for 2002-2008. Sheets is 24th in IP, 27th in GS, 24th in FIP, 9th in K, 10th in WHIP (starters only), and 13th in WAR. Only 35th in wins. In conclusion, yes Sheets did get injured multiple times, and usually at rather inconvenient times, but over that 7 year period he was still mostly healthy and probably better than a lot of people realized because the team around him was often horrible.
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scott.jpgScott - 6225 Posts
07/30/2012 @ 08:42:41 AM
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A look at Sheets' stats from 2004 will make your head turn. 10 k/9, 8.25 k/bb, 264 K, 2.70 ERA, .983 WHIP. And as far as injuries, he had 3 straight seasons where he didn't miss a start, and that doesn't include his rookie season where I believe he started later in the year and once he started he didn't miss. So it's almost 4 straight seasons. And in those 3 seasons, he averaged nearly 6 2/3 innings per start, averaging 224+ innings per year. After seeing Ben Sheets come back to baseball recently, I pulled my Ben Sheets bobblehead out of the box and put it above my bar along side my Paul Molitor, Ryan Braun, and now Bob Uecker bobbleheads. He's officially part of Scott's Ring Of Honor!
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scott.jpgScott - If you aren't enough without it, you'll never be enough with it.
07/30/2012 @ 01:13:41 PM
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The Brewers fired their bullpen coach, which is to say "did something". I don't know what you do when you find that your entire bullpen suddenly can't make outs. They say Axford has struggled in part because he can't command his curveball for strikes the way he did last season. Because of that, he is forced to rely more on his fastball, while still very fast, is hitable when hitters know that's the only thing coming as a strike. But how do you correct that mid season? Maybe there's a mechanics thing that could be worked out, but that takes reps, and probably lots of reps. Once you lose the ability to control a pitch, how the heck to get that back? Axford seems like too good of a pitcher to be done for good. I would imagine that he could come back next year with better command of his pitches. But for now, he's a big part of the problem. All that is not to downplay how bad the rest of the bullpen has been.

I don't know how else to explain it, though. I cannot think of anything more frustrating than watching your bullpen give up a 4 run lead in the 7th inning or later. Now imagine seeing that happen pretty much every other night for the past 2 weeks! That is honestly what has happened! 4 of their last 9 losses have been of the devastating blown save variety. One's heart can only take so much. It's easier to take knowing that the Brewers season unofficially ended last Sunday. But it's like watching a train approach a crippled bridge every time a Brewers starter leaves the game with a lead. You know what's going to happen, but you can't do anything about it. And all you can hope for is that the other team figures out a way to fail even worse, sparing your team from yet another predictable collapse.

Basically, the Brewers bullpen is last or near last in a whole bunch of somewhat important categories (ERA, losses, blown saves, .BAA, walks). As a minor consolation, however, they lead the league in Evil Baron facial hair.
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scott.jpgScott - 6225 Posts
08/01/2012 @ 11:23:21 AM
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To highlight some of the bright spots of the season, Mike Fiers (who i've highlighted before) has been continuing to tear up Major League hitters. He currently has an ERA of 1.77. In his last 7 starts, his ERA is 0.77. 8 of his 10 starts have been quality starts. NL ROY?
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Scott perfected this at 08/01/2012 11:24:27 am
2887.gifAlex - 3618 Posts
08/01/2012 @ 01:22:13 PM
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Scott Wrote - Today @ 11:23:21 AM
Mike Fiers (who i've highlighted before)


Are you secretly his agent, or this some sort of man crush?

I don't think he'll have logged enough innings for ROY. But if he gets to 100 IP and still has an ERA under 2, maybe he'll have a chance.
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scott.jpgScott - 6225 Posts
08/01/2012 @ 03:31:19 PM
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I'm excited about him moreso because I mentioned him in the MLB offseason thread after scouring the minorleague pitching stats (after reading moneyball) and concluding that statistically, he was the best minor league pitcher they had. Basically, the only people I heard anything about regarding the Brewers farm system were Tyler Thornburg and Willy Peralta. Aside from the fact that Thornburg and Peralta are younger and that probably attributed to the "they're gonna be good" talk, Fiers was virtually a nobody, except that my laser eyes discovered him. I'm not even sure Melvin knew about him until he read this blog. Basically, I'm gonna take credit for calling Fiers being this good.
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2887.gifAlex - I don't need to get steady I know just how I feel
08/07/2012 @ 10:30:59 AM
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http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/daily-notes-totally-on-fiers/
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scott.jpgScott - 6225 Posts
08/07/2012 @ 09:32:55 PM
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Fiers' line tonight: 8.0 ip, 3 h, 1 er, 0 bb, 7 k, season era 1.80, season whip 1.01. Carried a perfect game into the 7th inning. 8th straight quality start. 80 innings to date. That is all.

I'm going to add to this (and get used to my Mike Fiers updates; there's not much else worth talking about regarding the Brewers):
Comparing Wade Miley to Mike Fiers: Miley has more than 40 more innings that Fiers, but there are still some relevant comparisons. For one, Fiers already has 10 quality starts, and Miley has 12. So in 7 fewer starts, Fiers only has 2 fewer quality starts. Until Fiers gets over 100 innings with an ERA under 2, I won't go much further yet. The edge at this point probably has to go to Miley because of the innings, but in July and august Miley has an era of 3.49. In other words, he might be wearing down. And another cool stat, I've seen both of these guys in person this year.

One more note. Fiers and Miley both have 4 starts in which they gave up 0 earned runs while going at least 6 innings. Of those games, Miley gave up an unearned run in two of those games, and Fiers didn't give up any runs earned or unearned. And Fiers did this with 7 fewer starts than Miley.
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Scott messed with this 4 times, last at 08/08/2012 10:27:33 am
newalex.jpgAlex - But let history remember, that as free men, we chose to make it so!
08/22/2012 @ 01:51:20 PM
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http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/8285687/mlb-future-power-rankings-2012-nos-16-30

Brewers 25th, Twins 26th. So hah! Could be lean times ahead for all of us.

Although I don't get why the Brewers' Finance rating dropped. They drop all the salary of Alex Gonzalez, Greinke, Marcum, KRod, and Wolf except for a $1.5 million buyout. Which understandably is a big hit to their major league roster rating, but it seems like an improvement to their finances. And not counting Greinke the other 4 combined for only 1.8 WAR, which is maybe unfair because of the injuries, but Marcum is a continuing injury risk if you ask me so losing him really isn't as big of a deal (although losing him without a trade deadline pick for a prospect stinks).
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scott.jpgScott - Resident Tech Support
09/05/2012 @ 01:00:36 PM
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over a 3 year period spanning 2009 to 2011, Braun's home/away batting splits look like this.

homeruns
Home: 44 homers in 860 at bats (1 homerun every 19.5 at bats)
away: 46 homers in 957 at bats (1 homerun every 20.8 at bats)

average numbers:
Home: avg .302, obp .374, slg .543, ops .917
away: .332/.390/.553/.943


So Miller Park being a hitter friendly park or not, Ryan Braun can rake anywhere he plays.
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matt.jpgMatt - Ombudsman
09/06/2012 @ 03:26:15 AM
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Maybe it's because he cheats.
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scott.jpgScott - If you aren't enough without it, you'll never be enough with it.
09/06/2012 @ 08:14:06 AM
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And only when he's playing on the road, you know, to even out the numbers.
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fry6beeu9.jpgJeremy - Broadcast in stunning 1080i
09/06/2012 @ 01:25:25 PM
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Some of us don't have insider like you cool people
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scott.jpgScott - 6225 Posts
09/06/2012 @ 01:40:48 PM
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I think alex is the only one.
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2887.gifAlex - 3618 Posts
09/06/2012 @ 10:12:33 PM
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You get the mag with it, so why not?
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jeremy.jpgJeremy - Super Chocolate Bear
09/07/2012 @ 12:42:41 AM
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What on earth would I want to get that magazine for?
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2887.gifAlex - You've got to trust your instinct, and let go of regret
09/07/2012 @ 09:28:38 AM
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I'm using a stack to prop up a broken corner of a bed frame in the spare room.
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scott.jpgScott - 6225 Posts
09/12/2012 @ 08:38:48 AM
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The Brewers actually have a real chance to sneak into the 2nd wild card spot. And they obviously can handle the braves. My estimates is that the Brewers need to go 14-6 in their remaining 20 games while hoping the cardinals go 10-10 (or worse). The Dodgers and pirates still need to lose, but the Brewers are only 3 games and 1.5 games behind those two teams. They are playing their best baseball of the season right now, and their bullpen is performing better recently. Unfortunately, we're to the point when all those late inning meltdowns are really starting to come into play.
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newalex.jpgAlex - 3618 Posts
09/12/2012 @ 11:53:10 PM
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2-4% chance at the start of the day depending on whose numbers you want to go with. But it was 4 for 4 games in their favor tonight...
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scott.jpgScott - 6225 Posts
09/13/2012 @ 07:35:47 AM
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It's 7% chance now for the Brewers. Their chances almost doubled in one day.
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scott.jpgScott - Resident Tech Support
09/17/2012 @ 08:15:26 AM
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Barring some miracle change of conscience, Ryan Braun won't win the MVP this year, regardless of how he finishes or how the team finishes. But that doesn't mean he shouldn't win it. He's 2nd in the NL in WAR, behind only the Pirates Andrew McCutchen. The Pirates are fading fast, and the Brewers are making what could be a historic surge. And we all know how much stock voters put in team success when considering MVP votes. Buster Posey is close behind in WAR, and he's a catcher, and his team is firmly in place atop their division, so he might be the pick. One thing the voters can't deny Braun though is 2012 NL Home Run Champion, which barring injury should be a lock.
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face.bmpCarlos44ec - Tater Salad?
09/18/2012 @ 03:14:50 PM
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When I last looked the Twins had a better chance (0) of winning the division than winning a Wild Card spot (-100)
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scott.jpgScott - Resident Tech Support
09/19/2012 @ 10:05:03 AM
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Ryan Braun is FanGraph's MVP to this point. He has surpassed Andrew McCutchen in WAR. But again, he won't win, in large part because of a self-righteous complex from sports writers that will ignore the legal system that baseball has put in place and will convict the guy of something the system acquitted him of. {/soapbox}
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hoochpage.JPGSarah - 4107 Posts
09/19/2012 @ 12:29:24 PM
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Not to start this whole thing again, but was he really acquitted? I don't even care anymore...
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2887.gifAlex - I don't need to get steady I know just how I feel
09/19/2012 @ 12:44:13 PM
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Scott Wrote - Today @ 10:05:03 AM
Ryan Braun is FanGraph's MVP to this point.


Multiple writers on FanGraphs have specifically said that WAR was not meant to used as a conversation ender about things like MVP, so on their behalf I take offense to your misleading lead that turned out to be just a WAR leader board.
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scott.jpgScott - You're going to have to call your hardware guy. It's not a software issue.
09/19/2012 @ 01:17:01 PM
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Sarah Wrote - Today @ 12:29:24 PM
Not to start this whole thing again, but was he really acquitted? I don't even care anymore...

The appeals process that major league baseball setup to deal with drug testing ruled in Braun's favor. I think from a legal standpoint, that is the definition of acquitted. Not Guilty = acquitted. Obviously, Not Guilty != innocent, at least not necessarily, but it doesn't mean guilty either.
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scott.jpgScott - No, I did not change your screen saver settings
09/19/2012 @ 01:22:18 PM
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Alex Wrote - Today @ 12:44:13 PM
Scott Wrote - Today @ 10:05:03 AM
Ryan Braun is FanGraph's MVP to this point.
Multiple writers on FanGraphs have specifically said that WAR was not meant to used as a conversation ender about things like MVP, so on their behalf I take offense to your misleading lead that turned out to be just a WAR leader board.

I know that WAR shouldn't be the conversation ender (and I know that Matt Kemp's WAR was higher than Braun's last year), but it's at least an indicator of MVP deserving players. My point was the population of writers who have stated that they will refuse to vote for Braun because of something that has been removed from Braun's record, never should have been found out, and has sort of been vindicated of Braun at least with the season he's having while being tested on an hourly basis. Basically, Braun would be a very legitimate candidate for MVP this year (not saying he would be a lock, but he's on pace to be a 40 HR 30 SB guy who's 5th in BA) if it weren't for the steroids test in the offseason that has since been ruled not admissible. And it's sad, because if he is indeed innocent, the criminal leak of the information is having a very real and direct impact on his career outside of the on-field performance.
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Scott messed with this 2 times, last at 09/19/2012 1:24:19 pm
face.bmpCarlos44ec - "Always remember that you are unique. Just like everybody else."
09/20/2012 @ 12:17:47 PM
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WAR. Huh. What is it good for?

Absolutely nuthin.

Sorry, had to.
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scott.jpgScott - 6225 Posts
09/21/2012 @ 11:56:57 AM
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Here's an interesting stat that I ran across today regarding the 2011/2012 Brewers and the impact of Prince Fielder:
2011 (with prince fielder): 721 runs scored 185 home runs hit (162 games)
2012 (w/o prince fielder): 719 runs scored 186 home runs hit (through 149 games)

So the Brewers have already surpassed their homerun total from last year, and are 2 runs away from passing their run total from last year. And they are doing this without a guy that left and got paid $200 million dollars because of his offensive prowess. Obviously it's not like they lost Fielder and everything stayed the same personell wise. But, they did lose a big offensive presence and have virtually eliminated any loss of productivity other less expensive players.

Also, it should be pointed out (and not that many people are making this case) that the fact that the Brewers aren't as good record wise as they were last year really should not be attributed in any way to the loss of Fielder. Offensively, they have actually been better this year without him that they were last year with him.
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2887.gifAlex - 3618 Posts
09/21/2012 @ 01:47:53 PM
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First of all, I'm officially changing my season status to "Sucked back in so I can get gut punched again."

As far as Fielder goes, it's not like they replaced his production with league minimum guys. Ramirez has been the second best Brewers hitter and he's making $13 million per year. Which is obviously less than Fielder's $24 million, and on shorter contract which carries less overall risk, but still.

And I don't want to completely call it luck because I assume they employ some at least mildly competent scouts, but Aoki has been a huge help and they're definitely getting their money's worth+ from him. Also the Lucroy+Maldonado combination has played well above its pay grade, and probably even Gomez. Fortunately for the team only Gomez is really in a position to cash in on it anytime soon.
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newalex.jpgAlex - But let history remember, that as free men, we chose to make it so!
09/21/2012 @ 07:15:15 PM
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Well that didn't take long. Who makes the first out of the inning at home plate? emoticon
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scott.jpgScott - If you aren't enough without it, you'll never be enough with it.
09/21/2012 @ 09:27:05 PM
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This is getting serious
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scott.jpgScott - 6225 Posts
09/21/2012 @ 09:29:52 PM
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Alex Wrote - Today @ 01:47:53 PM
First of all, I'm officially changing my season status to "Sucked back in so I can get gut punched again."

As far as Fielder goes, it's not like they replaced his production with league minimum guys. Ramirez has been the second best Brewers hitter and he's making $13 million per year. Which is obviously less than Fielder's $24 million, and on shorter contract which carries less overall risk, but still.

And I don't want to completely call it luck because I assume they employ some at least mildly competent scouts, but Aoki has been a huge help and they're definitely getting their money's worth+ from him. Also the Lucroy+Maldonado combination has played well above its pay grade, and probably even Gomez. Fortunately for the team only Gomez is really in a position to cash in on it anytime soon.


The Brewers don't scout Japan. So their "scouting" of Aoki was only video highlights. They sort of got him sight-unseen. And I never meant that the Brewers got rid of Fielder, were now had a payroll of $30 million, and are someone figuring out way to cheat their way to runs. But everyone was talking about how the loss of Fielder was going to hurt, and not only hasn't it hurt, but they are a better offensive club even in his absence.

Oh, and regarding the "sucked back in only to get punched again": I severed my emotional attachment with the 2012 Brewers after the 9 game post-all-star game stretch that was supposed to decide their season. I did this to allow myself to have a sane life while watching the Brewers collapse time after time. But I'm pretty sure I've re-forged the sword and am now spending far too much energy following the team. as far as getting "punched again", they now have 2 consecutive games that should have been that punch but they found ways to claw their way back for wins. 1.5 games back after tonight!
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Scott messed with this at 09/21/2012 9:32:41 pm
scott.jpgScott - Resident Tech Support
09/27/2012 @ 09:11:49 AM
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WAR Leaders from 2008-2012

From the start of Ryan Braun's first full season in the big leagues (2008-2012), only Albert Pujols has a higher WAR than him. If you include his rookie season, in which he came up in late may and started at a position (third base) that he didn't stay at past that year, he still has the 5th highest WAR in all of baseball over that span.
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Scott messed with this 2 times, last at 09/27/2012 9:15:16 am
scott.jpgScott - On your mark...get set...Terrible!
09/27/2012 @ 09:23:05 AM
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Jeremy Wrote - 09/07/2012 @ 12:42:41 AM
What on earth would I want to get that magazine for?


Late comment: ESPN the Magazine has actually gotten a lot better now. It used to be the sports equivalent of a gossip magazine. Now it seems to actually seems like a hard hitting journal magazine. They dig deep into more obscure stories (like the link between a certain style of pitching delivery and tommy john surgery). I get ESPN the Mag because I never use my frequent flier miles and it was either the Mag or Cat Fancy. But there have been some things recently that have made me look at the Mag differently.
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fry6beeu9.jpgJeremy - 1.21 Gigawatts!?!?
09/27/2012 @ 10:03:29 AM
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I'm sure it's fine, it's just, like any magazine, if you cared about the information at all in the first place, you already knew about it a month ago. (Or, for that matter, can often just read the same article online.)
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scott.jpgScott - Ma'am, can you make sure your computer is turned on?
09/27/2012 @ 10:58:17 AM
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That's true, in fact, the one article I refer to (the tommy john surgery one), I saw read online, and then got that issue in the mail a day or 2 later.
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jon.jpgJon - 2862 Posts
09/27/2012 @ 08:10:20 PM
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Jeremy Wrote - Today @ 10:03:29 AM
I'm sure it's fine, it's just, like any magazine, if you cared about the information at all in the first place, you already knew about it a month ago. (Or, for that matter, can often just read the same article online.)


I disagree. How would you already know it? It's not sportscenter in print form. There are original pieces of writing in there. There's a really good Joe Mauer piece in the latest issue that's probably full of stuff that people probably didn't already know. Plus, one of the best things about magazines is that you read about things that you wouldn't normally seek out or even click on a link to read.
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jeremy.jpgJeremy - Robots don't say 'ye'
09/27/2012 @ 08:23:12 PM
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http://m.espn.go.com/mlb/story?storyId=8391985
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jon.jpgJon - 2862 Posts
09/27/2012 @ 08:42:23 PM
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well, yeah you can read some of them online for free. Which says nothing of your "month ago" comment. I guess I should have mentioned the article on the Reds bullpen instead. Though I haven't read it yet. It's probably boxscores from august.
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jeremy.jpgJeremy - 8968 Posts
09/27/2012 @ 08:53:53 PM
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emoticon
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jon.jpgJon - 2862 Posts
09/27/2012 @ 08:54:54 PM
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?
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scott.jpgScott - 6225 Posts
09/28/2012 @ 09:16:01 AM
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Yeah, but can you read that article on a plane, between taxiing and ascending to 30,000 feet? Can you roll that article up and use it to get your dog off the couch? Can that article be used for fuel for starting a fire when you're done with it? I think not. #realbooks
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Scott edited this at 09/28/2012 9:18:02 am
jeremy.jpgJeremy - 8968 Posts
09/28/2012 @ 10:27:43 AM
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Well, first things first, I was mainly joking because we've done this like 10 times now. Obviously the "you knew anything you cared about 1 month ago" thing only applies to news/revelations contained within.
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hoochpage.JPGSarah - So's your face
09/28/2012 @ 11:00:58 AM
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Twins and Nishi parted ways... and Twins not responsible for 2013 contract money or 2014 buyout
http://bollingerbeat.mlblogs.com/2012/09/28/twins-grant-nishioka-his-unconditional-release/
That experiment did not work out well for anyone!
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scott.jpgScott - 6225 Posts
09/28/2012 @ 11:13:00 AM
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He's no Norichika Aoki
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scott.jpgScott - No, I did not change your screen saver settings
10/02/2012 @ 08:37:06 AM
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The Brewers clinched a winning season last night, having been 12 games under .500 on August 19. That is now their 4th winning season in their last 6. Considering I went most of my life without experiencing a winning season from a team that I give most of my emtion to each summer, that number is quite refreshing. This is a different franchise than existed from 1993-2006. You got to start somewhere, and this is a good one. And from what I hear, the Brewers have very limited amounts of guaranteed money committed to next year so far (something like $55million), so the September 2012 Brewers could be a pretty good indication of what the 2013 Brewers might look like, and that would be a good, good thing.
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2887.gifAlex - 3618 Posts
10/02/2012 @ 01:38:29 PM
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Alex Wrote - 07/29/2012 @ 02:25:51 PM
I unscientifically have their 2013 payroll at around $70 million after the arb raises kick in (which is where I just ballparked some numbers). That's assuming they don't want to pay Wolf $10 million and turn down their option. So at this point the rotation and to a lesser extent the bullpen (unless they let some arb arms walk) is wide open for next season, but they may have the payroll space to go after a plus starter (meaning not another Wolf or Suppan) too.


Wolf is gone and they probably cut a little more by trading Kottaras.
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scott.jpgScott - No, I did not change your screen saver settings
10/02/2012 @ 02:50:48 PM
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http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/05/2013-payroll-commitments.html

This is from September 4th. The Brewers have $52.4 Million in payroll commitments for next year*. They have Gallardo, Braun, Hart, Weeks, Lucroy, Aoki, and Ramirez under contract at least through next season, and that's just the guys I can think of. They seem to be in good position to resign their lowish payroll guys and possibly go outside to land a free agent pitcher in this somewhat saturated starting pitching market. Basically, there is reason for hope for 2013.

*Please note that these figures don't include club or vesting options or figures for players whose salaries will be determined via the arbitration process. The totals include commitments to players no longer in the organization.
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Scott screwed with this at 10/02/2012 2:51:27 pm
newalex.jpgAlex - 3618 Posts
10/02/2012 @ 05:41:48 PM
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Right, so the $52.4 million number is somewhat pointless since I'm fairly certain they're not going to just release guys like Gomez. It's more in the $70 million range realistically. Which still leaves them room to spend on pitchers theoretically, especially if they decide Segura can handle SS. Probably looking at one solid starter and a bullpen arm or two. If Segura starts I don't think they bring in any positions players with the idea of giving them much playing time, unless they want to try and upgrade Aoki.

Also if they then in theory have $20-30 million more to spend they probably shouldn't spend it all in the off season so they can pick up some in season salary dumps next year if they're in playoff contention.
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scott.jpgScott - 6225 Posts
10/02/2012 @ 09:36:44 PM
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If anything, I'd say I was supporting your statement (I like to show my sources), but you had to go and get all combative about it.

I found a better source for who's under contract and who's eligible for arbitration: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/?page_id=71

Guys under contract at least through next year:
Weeks, hart, Braun, Ramierz, gallardo, Aoki, Lucroy

Guys eligible for arbitration:
Nyjer morgan, Loe, Veras, Gomez, Parra, Axford, Narveson, Estrada.

Gomez actually pulled off a decent year, racking up a 3.5 WAR line. What's the exchange rate for WAR in arbitration? Could Gomez get $3-4 mil? Or would the Brewers take the chance and sign him for 3-4 years at a (somewhat) discounted rate? I'd be curious about that. He just keeps sticking around, and he may have now found his bat. I think you're right about Segura. They appear to be set in the field.

Their rotation right now would like consist of Gallardo, Estrada, Paralta, and then fill in the rest. They might look to find a No 2 or 3 starter in FA. So if you're right about the $70 Million-ish dollars, they could get a couple of Marcum-esq players (not guys that collapse in september, but that caliber of pitcher) for around $10MM, that would put their payroll at about $90Mil, which still gives them plenty room to spare.
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2887.gifAlex - I was too weak to give in Too strong to lose
10/03/2012 @ 02:56:15 PM
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Oh, I thought everyone already knew Cot's contracts was the place to be for contract info emoticon

Gomez could probably get at least $4 million in arb, and that might be on the low end. His splits this year vs L and R are pretty much even, so at this point he's looking like a full time starting CF. I'd have no problem giving him up to 4 years at a reasonable price, but have no inside info on what the management is planning.

You don't have your boy Fiers in the rotation? Right now I assume the plan is 5 out of Gallardo, Estrada, Peralta, Fiers, Rogers, Narveson, and Thornburg would be the starters. That's more quantity than quality probably, but I'd be surprised if they sign more than one free agent SP in the $10 mil range. I haven't looked at the list lately but I don't think there's that much out there for SP free agents, they might not even sign one SP in that range.

Some more articles about such things
http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/sports/171996711.html
http://www.jsonline.com/sports/brewers/outlook-for-brewers-is-bright-in-2013-s971erk-171949781.html
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scott.jpgScott - 6225 Posts
10/03/2012 @ 04:32:36 PM
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Actually I've never heard of cots whatever until yesterday. But now it's my number one source from now on for that sort if thing. I did forget about Fiers, so throw him in there. I've read that the pitching market this year is pretty good. But I suppose it's somewhat subjective. I'm not sure if that means quality or quantity, or if I'm wrong altogether.
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newalex.jpgAlex - 3618 Posts
10/03/2012 @ 06:07:03 PM
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Hmmm...there are some names here
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/04/2013-mlb-free-agents.html

Need to find a list tied to some recent (or projected) stats though.

I guess during the trade deadline there were some articles that made it seem like next year's possible SP free agents were Hamels, Greinke, and some guys with noodle arms.
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scott.jpgScott - 6225 Posts
10/04/2012 @ 08:08:59 AM
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There are some decent names on that list at first glance, but no young arms (which I guess makes sense, since teams have control of players for so long). Zack Greinke at 28 is the youngest pitcher on that list. Although this year I think I'd rather see them either stick with what they've got or pick up an arm in FA. I'm not sure I want to give up much for talent in a Marcum-like trade, although I'm still pretty satisfied with how the Marcum trade ended up, despite how he finished this season.
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Scott messed with this at 10/04/2012 8:11:13 am
scott.jpgScott - 6225 Posts
10/04/2012 @ 10:15:50 AM
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Here's an unusual set of stat splits for Ryan Braun and home runs:

Away vs home: 17 homers/24 homers
LHP vs RHP: 17/24
Post All Star vs Pre All Star: 17/24
runners on vs none on: 17/24

Also, 22% of Braun's homeruns came on the first pitch, while only 17% of his total at bats resulted in the ball being put in play on the first pitch. Braun batted .350 when swinging at the first pitch. Obviously that means he needs to start swinging at the first pitch more often, right?emoticon
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Scott messed with this 3 times, last at 10/04/2012 10:18:58 am
scott.jpgScott - 6225 Posts
10/05/2012 @ 08:11:11 PM
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If the Braves-Cardinals game protest was denied, what's the point of playing the game under protest. Nothing justifiable about the infield fly being called.

from the rule for infield fly: An INFIELD FLY is a fair fly ball (not including a line drive nor an attempted bunt) which can be caught by an infielder with ordinary effort I'm not sure how "sprinting out into left field and turning around at the last nano second only to have the ball drop behind you" is to be considered "ordinary", but then again, the umpire who made the call is usually not standing out in left field like the extra umpires do in the playoffs. It's a sad day for baseball.
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jeremy.jpgJeremy - 8968 Posts
10/06/2012 @ 12:26:48 AM
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It's a judgement call. As I understand it protests are only for flat out forgetting the rules. (Or other procedural type matters.) Like if the umpire gave a team 4 outs in an inning, or in this case if he called infield fly with 2 outs or only 1 runner on base, or something like that.

I don't think "sprinting out and turning at the last nano second" is really what happened, (at his peak it was really a brisk jog, let alone sprint, and he does wait under it longer than it seemed when the debacle played out live.) but you could indeed make a case that was more than "ordinary effort", although that play is fairly routine, generally. The umpire couldn't have predicted he'd proceed to run out of there like it was a grenade falling on him as soon as his hand went up.

Everyone jumped to "you need to be able to actually get a double play if dropped in order to call it that", and "that was too deep!" type appeals, to the spirit of the rule, but much like the Green Bay/Seahawks "more control", "to me it's who gets it to the chest first", and so on type gut appeals to what we "think", there's nothing in the rules about "if a double play could have been turned" or how "deep" it is being a factor*.

Even the lateness of the call might not be all that suspect. The rule does indeed use the word "immediately" in a couple places, but in context "When it seems apparent that a batted ball will be an Infield Fly, the umpire shall immediately declare Infield Fly for the benefit of the runners." seems to just be defining "immediately" as in saying "don't wait until the action is over to make the call, call as soon as you know." For example, with fair/foul calls, no one is expecting them to make an "immediate" guess as to what it will be as soon as it leaves the bat. They're allowed to wait until it's apparent, at which point they make an "immediate" (midplay) call.

The problem with things like this is that every single time the people who are supposed to know the rules, and actually analyse the play to see what happened, make a snap judgement, never question it, freak out, proceed to make up what they feel the rule should be, instead of telling us what it is, and whip the nation into a tizzy.

In the end the only actual rule, other than defining the situation is that it has to be a flyball that could have be caught by an infielder, with an "ordinary" effort, and although this maybe pushed the limits of that (purposely vague) phrase a bit, that is indeed a trivial out to make.

*In fact the rule goes out of its way to point out that there is no "arbitrary" point at which it's too deep, if it could "easily" have been an out, as this could have, the rule is applicable.
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Jeremy screwed with this 10 times, last at 10/06/2012 12:53:36 am
scott.jpgScott - 6225 Posts
10/06/2012 @ 08:06:09 AM
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First off, it's ok to admit when an umpire screws up.

2nd, I understand the protest thing the way you do. My initial reaction was that if a manager thought that an umpire misapplied a rule, but I'm probably wrong on whether or not a bad infield fly rule call is misapplying the rule or just bad judgement.

Also, I didn't hear a lot of the analysis of it, but the TV announcers, I thought, did cover the fact that it doesn't have to be on the infield, but the fact that it was so far in left (almost beyond the area considered "short left") that the ordinary effort portion wasn't met.

And I'll also say this about the rule, and baseball rules in general. People will claim (and we've had this discussion before) that football rules are so specific and so nitpicky because they are intended for very specific purposes and if that purpose isn't played out on the field then the rule doesn't apply. I'm not sure that's the case with baseball. Here's what I mean by that. From little league on, you are taught that the infield fly rule is to prevent the fielders from intentionally dropping a pop fly in order to get a double play (at least my nerdy mentality of reading the rule book as my bedtime reading led me to believe). In my opinion, the rule book doesn't have to say that explicitly for that to be a criteria, and I would almost guarantee that any ump that calls infield fly rule on a ball that is beyond the dirt most likely has that thought in the back of his mind (is there a possibility of a double play if that isn't caught). So while not explicitly in the rules that a double play must be imminent, the only reason for the rule is to prevent it. That's why it only applies when there are 2 runners on, and not just a runner on first. So in this case, not only in my opinion was the letter of the law misjudged at best, the spirit of the rule was thrown in the trash. And it's not like I'm just saying "it didn't feel like an infield fly rule". I'm saying "this was not an infield fly rule".
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jeremy.jpgJeremy - 8968 Posts
10/06/2012 @ 10:37:56 AM
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I didn't like the call when it happened either, upon further review, divorced from the emotion of the moment, it's an understandable, if not correct, call.

He lopes out a bit, slows to a walk before stopping entirely, all the while signaling he's got it measured. It was a trivial fly ball out to make in the bigs, there were runners on first and second, and he's an infielder.

I suspect more or less that same call was made a dozen times this year.
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jeremy.jpgJeremy - 8968 Posts
10/06/2012 @ 11:01:26 AM
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The way I see it the only legitimate gripe, even though I don't think most people are reading the "immediate" thing the way I think it was intended, is that he could have factored in the length of time in his judgement. In other words, it's not wrong just because he called it so late, but perhaps he could have factored "if i have to wait this long for it to become apparent, maybe this isn't 'ordinary'"*

*Upon further review, even the "lateness" is anywhere from understandable to "exactly what he's supposed to do".
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Jeremy messed with this at 10/06/2012 11:30:10 am
jeremy.jpgJeremy - Cube Phenomenoligist
10/06/2012 @ 11:07:38 AM
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http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=25339817

There's at least one from earlier in the year in there.
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Jeremy perfected this at 10/06/2012 11:07:57 am
scott.jpgScott - Resident Tech Support
10/08/2012 @ 07:55:00 AM
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I don't think it was a correct call, with or without emotion. Ordinary effort doesn't include running into mid left field. That's not what a short stop ordinarily does. Ordinary effort is maybe moving this way or that way and standing under the ball. He was camped under the ball for the briefest of moments, but even so, it was after a somewhat extra-ordinary effort. I still think the call was incorrect, and my emotions are thoroughly in check.

Even the example that they showed in that video are taking the point of the rule completely out of context (basically, in my opinion, they are 100% ditching the entire spirit of the rule altogether). The only point of the rule is prevent a deliberate drop in order to turn a double play. There is no other reason for the rule. There is no way you turn a double play when you drop a ball 80 feet from the outfield grass. So maybe the rule is simply being misapplied across the board. I don't know, either way, I still think that is a poor application of the infield fly rule. Not that I really care, I didn't have a dog in the fight. But I still think it was incorrect.
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scott.jpgScott - No, I did not change your screen saver settings
10/11/2012 @ 10:53:06 AM
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Here's an interesting article from BaseballProspectus (from a year ago) about a catcher's ability to get "extra" strikes called in his favor. Apparently Jonathon Lucroy is an exceptional defensive catcher in terms of "saving runs for their team by getting extra strike calls at the edge of the zone."
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Scott edited this at 10/11/2012 10:53:47 am
jeremy.jpgJeremy - 8968 Posts
10/11/2012 @ 03:11:34 PM
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Interesting.

As for the IFR convo: I suspect it's called all the time in situations similar to that. We just don't notice because that ball is caught 99.9% of the time*. I guess you could argue it shouldn't be, because the spirit of the rule is that it's supposed to prevent double plays, but if you think about it, rolling that into the judgement** would be a pretty big ask. Personally I'll take "overly" applied but more objective, over making it more subjective, most times. Especially when it has almost no effect because the ball is actually caught essentially always.

*I've also heard it mentioned that the noise and "size of the game" should have been factored into how "ordinary" a play it was, but I think that's being pretty silly.

**After all, the ball does travel in seemingly no time in the bigs, so "can't have turned a double play on that" is kind of unknowable, and, either way, is a ton of things all over the field to ask someone to make a quick ruling on.
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Jeremy messed with this at 10/11/2012 3:11:56 pm
scott.jpgScott - If you aren't enough without it, you'll never be enough with it.
10/16/2012 @ 12:21:30 PM
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Could the Brewers push for Josh Hamilton?
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newalex.jpgAlex - Refactor Mercilessly
10/17/2012 @ 12:35:06 PM
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Without even clicking on this link, I'm 99.9% sure the answer is no.
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scott.jpgScott - 6225 Posts
10/17/2012 @ 12:42:08 PM
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My gut feeling is probably the same as Doug Melvin's. the link is essentially Buster Olney making the case for Milwaukee being a decent fit. But the Brewers offense is pretty good. If they spend for free agency this offseason, it's going to be on pitching.
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jon.jpgJon - 1 bajillion posts
10/17/2012 @ 09:57:25 PM
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Scott Wrote - Today @ 12:42:08 PM
My gut feeling is probably the same as Doug Melvin's. the link is essentially Buster Olney making the case for Milwaukee being a decent fit. But the Brewers offense is pretty good. If they spend for free agency this offseason, it's going to be on pitching.


Good fit? Go to a city/state where drinking is the #1, 2 and 3 pastime?

Truth be told I don't know how big a thing that would actually be, but it could be a red flag.
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scott.jpgScott - On your mark...get set...Terrible!
10/18/2012 @ 08:24:55 AM
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1, I meant "good fit" for the Brewers*, not necessarily that it would be an ideal fit for Hamilton who has a history of alcoholism. But I'm not sure how much of an influence it would be. And by that I mean, I'm actually not sure. Being someone whose idea of nightlife consists of staying up till 10:30 to catch the end of the Daily Show, I wouldn't say that I'm somehow tempted by the perception of an actual city/clubbing style nightlife. It might be different for someone with a history. But then again, what Major League baseball city could you go to that wouldn't have the same attractions that a Milwuakee would have?

*edit: by which I mean Buster Olney was making the case that he was, not necessarily that I think he is.
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Scott perfected this at 10/18/2012 1:24:42 pm
scott.jpgScott - 6225 Posts
11/05/2012 @ 01:47:16 PM
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More on Josh Hamilton, as the non-Milwaukee media seem to think that the Brewers are going to sign Hamilton. I got excited about the idea for about an hour a few weeks ago, but now thinking about it, the idea seems downright stupid* (and thankfully Doug Melvin is shooting down the rumors).

Here's a look at the Brewers outfield (making the assumption for the opening day lineup for 2013), and the WAR stats for each player (from fangraphs)
Braun LF - 7.9
Gomez CF - 3.5
Aoki RF - 2.9
Total = 14.3

Hamilton had a WAR in 2012 of 4.4, and he plays either left field or center field (I suppose a move to right field woudn't be out of the question, but he's only played 2 times in right field over the last 3 seasons). Braun's a fixture in left, so that's out. That means that if they signed him, they would intend to have him play center field. The problem, they have a defensive gem in center field who is still under arbitration. In other words, you're probably going to pay gomez about $3-4 million next year (ok, we'll say $5 for the sake of argument). Hamilton would probably require a 4+ year deal worth (help me out with the amount, Alex) $15-$20 million per year? So if those were the numbers, then the Brewers would be paying upwards of $15 million to upgrade their center field position a total of .9 WAR. Obviously, those WAR numbers aren't infalible, and Gomez has really had only one good, solid year over his career, but he's still only 27 come opening day next year, so he may still have 2-3 years of progress before he starts to decline.

Of course, they could sign hamilton and then negotiate an arb deal with Gomez only to trade him (or just trade him). He would have a lot of value right now, and could bring in some good pitching. So that's an "out-there" possibility. I just don't see it happening. Although I wouldn't rule it out, but I might. It seems like signing hamilton would be a high priced acquisition for a nominal gain in overall performance.

*With a persuasive argument, I could be convinced otherwise, however.
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Scott perfected this at 11/05/2012 1:48:34 pm
2887.gifAlex - 3618 Posts
11/05/2012 @ 02:22:31 PM
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"I could see Hamilton getting 5/125 from a team that decides to just ignore the risk and land the best offensive player on the market this winter. I could see Hamilton remaining a free agent until January before signing a one year deal somewhere to try and prove that his second half wasn’t a sign of things to come. Like with Hamilton on the field, his free agent outcomes cover the entire spectrum of possibilities. Perhaps that’s only fitting for a guy who and can end a 43-home-run season being booed by his home crowd. "
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/josh-hamilton-most-confusing-free-agent-ever/

The one year deal seems unlikely, some team will take a chance on at least 4 I would think. So at this point I'd guess 4 at $20 million is probably the minimum. Or that might be too low given this:
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/11/josh-hamiltons-asking-price-is-seven-years-175mm.html

This sounds promising but doesn't have any projections yet. I say Gomez gets at least $4 million.
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/arbitration-projection-model/

One thing about WAR and salaries and such, is that teams have to pay a premium for high WAR players. You can't sign 15 2 WAR position players for $2 million a piece to "outsmart" a team that has 9 3 WAR position players at $4 million a piece because obviously there's a limit to how many players can play at once.

That being said, and with the reported asking price for Hamilton, it's just not reasonable at all for the Brewers. If management isn't committed yet to Gomez for the next 4 years they could be looking at some of the other free agent CFs, but not Hamilton. If it were up to me, I'd be kicking the tires on a 4 year deal to see what Gomez is looking for. For something like Lucroy money it'd be a no brainer, but if he wants more I'd probably just ride out a 1 year deal and see what happens.
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2887.gifAlex - 3618 Posts
11/09/2012 @ 01:41:54 PM
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If the Brewers hadn't been somewhere in this article I might have had to stop reading FanGraphs.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-worst-bunts-of-2012/
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scott.jpgScott - 6225 Posts
11/27/2012 @ 01:25:42 PM
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Jeremy Wrote - 10/11/2012 @ 03:11:34 PM
Interesting.

As for the IFR convo: I suspect it's called all the time in situations similar to that. We just don't notice because that ball is caught 99.9% of the time*. I guess you could argue it shouldn't be, because the spirit of the rule is that it's supposed to prevent double plays, but if you think about it, rolling that into the judgement** would be a pretty big ask. Personally I'll take "overly" applied but more objective, over making it more subjective, most times. Especially when it has almost no effect because the ball is actually caught essentially always.

*I've also heard it mentioned that the noise and "size of the game" should have been factored into how "ordinary" a play it was, but I think that's being pretty silly.

**After all, the ball does travel in seemingly no time in the bigs, so "can't have turned a double play on that" is kind of unknowable, and, either way, is a ton of things all over the field to ask someone to make a quick ruling on.


http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2012/writers/tom_verducci/11/27/rules-changes-replay-rosters/1.html
The ball landed 225 feet from home plate -- 26 percent farther than any other infield fly call in the 2012 season on a ball that was not caught, according to Baseball Info Solutions.

So it turns out, the IFR in this particular scenario is a fairly significant, if not very significant, outlier.
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jeremy.jpgJeremy - Broadcast in stunning 1080i
11/29/2012 @ 12:18:34 AM
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But what is that a sample size of? 10? 30? 4?

Edit:
Not to mention the rule exists because dropping it on purpose could mean plays otherwise, so of the (probably small) sample of not caught infield fly calls, how many were short little purposely dropped plays because the fielder would rather, say, erase the speedy runner currently on 2nd than the batter. Or because the whole reason it was dropped was because the pitcher decided to be Captain America all of a sudden and confused things.

I file that stat under completely worthless with no other context provided.

Edit Edit:

http://mlb.sbnation.com/2012/10/15/3476426/infield-fly-rule-atlanta-braves-pete-kozma-sam-holbrook-wild-card-game

The whole article is worth reading, but it contains this, which, if true, renders the thing you quoted above such a "lies, damn lies, and statistics" thing that its implications are essentially a bald faced lie about the actual situation. Basically the ball flew 26% farther than...the other one, maybe other 2. Not exactly an outlier.

And this problem that we have now ... Is it really so terrible? According to Baseball Info Solutions, in the last three seasons there have been six occasions on which the Infield Fly Rule was called, but the catch was not made.

Six.
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Jeremy edited this 9 times, last at 11/29/2012 1:29:21 am
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